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Showing posts with label Prelims. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prelims. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Lecture-2: Basic Concepts of Economics Part-I (Macroeconomics) by S.Maitra, Associate Professor, Civil Services Study Centre, Administrative Training Institute, Kolkata (Feb 2014)

Gross domestic product (GDP): The sum of values of all final goods and services produced within the geographical limit of a country.
Gross National Product (GNP): The sum of values of all final goods and services produced by the citizens of a country within the country and the rest of the world. Gross National Product (GNP) =  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) + Net Factor Income from Abroad (NFIA)    
Gross domestic product at market price (GDPMP): While deriving GDP of a country we estimate value added at the market prices. The estimate of GDP obtained this way is known as GDP at market price.
Gross National Product at Factor Cost (GNPFC): Market prices normally include indirect taxes net of subsidies. Gross national product at factor cost {GNPFC) is simply, Gross national product at market price (GNPMP) minus net  indirect taxes (Net IT), i.e.       GNPFC  = GNPMP – Net IT
Net National Product (NNP):  Net National Product (NNP) is simply obtained as gross national product (GNP) minus depreciation (D) i.e. Net National Product (NNP) = Gross National Product (NDP) -- Total Depreciation (D). Fixed capitals have their own life-time and depreciates in value every period of time after their participation in the productive process. Depreciation of fixed capital takes place because of their normal ‘wear and tear’.
National income (NI): Net national product at factor cost is equivalent to the notion of national income {NI), which the accrual of income to all normal residents in a country due to their participation in production anywhere in the world. Therefore,                   National Income(NI) = NNPFC
GDP Deflator: The GDP deflator, also called the implicit price deflator for GDP, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP:
                            GDP Deflator = (Nominal GDP/ Real GDP)
Nominal GDP measures the value of the output of the economy at current prices. Real GDP measures output valued at constant prices. The GDP deflator measures the price of output relative to its price in the base year.
Aggregate demand shock: Shocks such as change in government expenditure or change in money supply that cause a change in aggregate demand in an economy.
Aggregate supply shock: Shocks such as increase in petroleum price, a drought etc. that lead to a change in aggregate supply in an economy.
Depreciation: The reduction in value of asset through wear and tear. Also, fall in the value of a currency in terms of another currency.
Rational expectations: Expectations about the future making best use of available information.
Efficiency wage: Modern-sector urban employers sometimes pay a higher wage than the equilibrium wage rate in order to attract a higher-quality work-force or to obtain higher productivity on the job.

Keynesian model: Model developed by Lord John Maynard Keynes in the early 1930s to explain the cause of economic depression and hence the unemployment of that period. The model states that unemployment is caused by insufficient aggregate demand and can be eliminated by increasing government expenditure. Increase in aggregate demand would lead to increase in production and hence create further employment.
Laissez-faire: Free-enterprise market economy without any government intervention.
Macroeconomic instability: When an economy is passing through a phase with high inflation accompanied by rising budget and trade deficits and a rapidly expanding money supply.
Macroeconomlc stablllzatlon: Policies designed to eliminate macroeconomic instability.
Procyclical fiscal policy: Changes in government spending and taxes that increase the cyclical fluctuations in the economy instead of reducing them.
Natural rate of unemployment The average rate of unemployment around which the economy fluctuates. The natural rate is the rate of unemployment toward which the economy gravitates in the long run, given all the labor-market imperfections that impede workers from instantly finding jobs.
Recession: A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product growth for two or more consecutive quarters of a year.
Accounting classification of government expenditure:
(i)           Revenue and Capital (ii) Developmental and Non-Developmental and (iii) Plan and Non-Plan.
Revenue and capital expenditure:
—  Expenditures that result in the creation of new assets and those which do not.
—  Revenue expenditure is for the normal running of government departments and various services, interest charges etc.
—  The main purpose of the capital account is to show the gross and net capital formation in the public sector during the accounting period. Capital expenditure results in creation of assets in the economy.
Revenue and capital budget:
—  Government budget comprises Revenue Budget and Capital Budget.
—  Revenue budget consists of revenue receipts of government (tax revenues and other revenues) and the expenditure met from these revenues.
—  Tax revenues comprise proceeds of taxes and other duties levied by the Union.
—  Revenue expenditure is for the normal running of government departments and various services. Broadly speaking, expenditure which does not result in creation of assets is treated as 'Revenue expenditure'. All financial administration grants given to state governments and other parties are also treated as revenue expenditure.
—  Capital budget consists of capital receipts and payments.
—  The main items of capital receipts are: a) loans raised by government from public which are called market loans, b) borrowings from Reserve Bank of India and other parties through sale of Treasury Bills, c) loans received from foreign governments and d) loans granted by Central government to state and union territory governments and other parties.
Capital expenditure:
—  A capital expenditure may be defined as any expenditure the benefits of which extend over a period of time exceeding one year.
—  Capital expenditure is the expenditure which is intended for creating concrete assets of a material character in the economy.
—  Examples of capital expenditure are the acquisition of assets like land, buildings machinery, equipment and also investment in shares and loans and advances granted by Central government to state and union territory governments, government companies etc.
Developmental and non-developmental expenditure:
—  Developmental expenditure comprises expenditure incurred on education. medical care, public health and family planning, labour and employment, agriculture, cooperation, irrigation, transport and communication and other miscellaneous services. Expenditure incurred on these items both on Revenue and Capital accounts is also treated as development expenditure.
—  Non-Developmental expenditure, on the other hand, comprises expenditure incurred on items like defence, collection of taxes and duties, administrative services, interest on debt and other services, stationery and printing and other expenditure on general services.
—  Developmental expenditure leads to economic growth and development whereas Non-Developmental expenditure does not, at least directly.
Plan and Non-Plan Expenditure:
—  Plan expenditure refers to the expenditure incurred by the Central Government on programmes / projects, which are recommended by the Planning Commission.
—  Non-Plan expenditure, on the contrary, is a generic term used to cover all expenditure of government, not included in the plan.
—  The distinction between 'plan expenditure' and non-plan expenditure' is purely an administrative classification.
—  Non-Plan expenditure consists of many items of expenditure, which are obligatory in nature.
—  Items of expenditure, such as interest payments, pensionary charges, statutory transfer to states come under the obligatory nature.
—  Defence, internal security are essential obligations of a state.
—  Besides, there are special responsibilities of the Central Government like external affairs, currency and mint, cooperation with other countries and the expenditure incurred in this connection are treated as "non-plan" expenditure.
—  Of all the major items of Non-plan expenditure of the Central Government, interest payments, defence, subsidies take the lion's share of expenditure.
Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit and Primary Deficit of Central Government:
—  Revenue Deficit = Revenue expenditure – Revenue receipts
—  Fiscal Deficit = Total expenditure—Revenue receipt— Recovery of  loans                            — Other receipt                            
—  Primary  Deficit = Fiscal Deficit – Interest payment

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Economics, Development Economics and Indian Economics for Civil Services Main Exam, 2013

Economics, Development Economics and Indian Economics for Civil Services Main Exam, 2013
·         Paper-V
General Studies -II (Governance, Constitution, Polity, Social Justice and International relations) of 250 marks which may include following topics:
·         Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation.
·         Development processes and the development industry- the role of NGOs, SHGs, various groups and associations, donors, charities, institutional and other stakeholders
·         Welfare schemes for vulnerable sections of the population by the Centre and States and the performance of these schemes; mechanisms, laws, institutions and Bodies constituted for the protection and betterment of these vulnerable sections.
·         Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.
·         Issues relating to poverty and hunger.

·         Paper-VI
General Studies -III (Technology, Economic Development, Bio-diversity, Environment, Security and Disaster Management) of 250 marks which may include following topics:
·         Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization of resources, growth, development and employment.
·         Inclusive growth and issues arising from it.
·         Government Budgeting.
·         Issues related to direct and indirect farm subsidies and minimum support prices; Public Distribution System- objectives, functioning, limitations, revamping; issues of buffer stocks and food security; Technology missions; economics of animal-rearing.
·         Food processing and related industries in India- scope and significance, location, upstream and downstream requirements, supply chain management.
·         Land reforms in India.
·         Effects of liberalization on the economy, changes in industrial policy and their effects on industrial growth.
·         Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.
·         Investment models.


Thursday, May 9, 2013

Important Announcement

 IAS Study Room is now available on WizIQ: A Portal for Online Education

Now you can join IAS Study Room through online education portal  http://www.wiziq.com/iasstudyroom. Prepare Economics for IAS General Studies (Prelims and Mains) by joining online educational portal http://www.wiziq.com/iasstudyroom.

About the online educator:
Economics Professor; Ex-Civil Servant (Ex-Magistrate); Stood Fourth in the University with a First Class; NET Qualified; Guest Professor, Institute for Civil Services Aspirants; Author of a Manual for IAS Prelims (in English and Hindi) (forthcoming); Prize winner in CSR Essay Competition; Author of undergraduate text book; Teaching Civil Service Aspirants for the last 10 years;Edited one magazine for competitive examination;Providing special training for interview for written-test qualified candidates at different institutes; Author of a IAS Mains General Studies Economics (in English and Hindi) (forthcoming), Has own Blog for IAS aspirants: iasstudymat.blogspot.com (nearly 23000 visitors so far)  

Monday, April 22, 2013

Final cut off marks in UPSC Civil Services Exams 2011


Information sought by someone through RTI and provided by UPSC regarding the final cut off, marks obtained by last person per category in 2011 Civil Services Exams.


Category
          Marks obtained
CSP 2011
(out of 400)
CS( Main)
(out of 2000)
Finally recommended
(out of 2300)
GEN
198
842
1090
OBCs
175
822
1059
SC
165
807
1023
ST
161
798
1009
O H
135
767
1008
V I 
124
767
1047
H I
096
663
911

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Civil Services General Studies Manual for Preliminary Examination, 2014 Edition

 New IAS General Studies Preliminary Manual  being published by Access Publishing, New Delhi will be out in June/July, 2013. An editorial board comprising experts in this field is contributing and editing different sections. The section relating to Economics, named 'Economic and Social Development' of India is contributed by S.Maitra. This manual will be helpful for State Civil Services Exams also. The manual will be in both English and Hindi. It will be available all over India  through book shops and online portals. Watch out for further announcement in leading national dailies. Watch out this blog for sample chapters of the new book.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

EMERGING GLOBAL ECONOMIC SITUATION: ITS IMPACT ON INDIA’S TRADE

Global Growth and Trade Situation: Though there was some recovery in the global economy after the 2008 crisis, the developments in US and Euro area have  worsened the global economic outlook.  The world economy has been receiving shocks at regular intervals. Accordingly, GDP growth of global economy is revised downwards to 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013 which is down by 0.2 and 0.3   percentage points  respectively as per October 2012 projections compared to the July 2012 projections. IMF has also reduced its earlier projections for world trade in goods and services to 3.2 percent for 2012 and to 4.5 percent for 2013, drastically down by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. There is a drastic fall in import and export projections for emerging and developing economies by 0.8 and 1.7 percentage points respectively for 2012, compared to the marginal fall for advanced economies by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. Like the month wise export growth rates, the month-wise import growth rates of the different trading partners of India which affects the demand for India‟s exports are also not encouraging.
After the 2008 crisis, many countries could reach the pre-crisis levels of exports, but few countries could reach the pre-crisis trends of export growth. India‟s export performance has been much better than many other countries on the export front as it could not only surpass pre-crisis levels but also reach precrisis trends and maintain it for a fairly long time in the post-crisis period. But in the last few months India‟s export growth has also started to decelerate.
Indian Economic and Trade Situation: The overall growth rate of the Indian economy was 6.5 percent in 2011-12 as against 8.4 percent achieved in each of the previous two years. In 2012-13 Q1, growth was at 5.5 percent compared to 8.0 percent in 2011-12 Q1. The slowdown is attributable both to domestic as
well as global factors.  There has been a slowdown in the global economy from 5.1  percent in 2010 to 3.8  percent in 2011.  The RBI  also  followed a tight monetary policy during most of 2011-12 to rein in on inflation which contributed to the increase in the cost of borrowings. These along with reduced investment
activity  contributed to the  slowdown in the industrial sector. Overall industrial growth moderated sequentially in each of the four quarters of 2011-12 and was at 2.9 percent compared to a growth of 8.2 percent in 2010-11.  During April–August of the current fiscal,  industrial  growth was at 0.4 percent. Due to a combination of factors like industrial slowdown affecting tax revenues and higher expenditure on subsidies on fuel and fertilizers, fiscal deficit shot up to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2011-12 as against a BE of 4.6 percent of GDP.  Headline WPI inflation, though moderated from 9.56  percent in 2010-11 and 8.94 percent in 2011-12 was at 7.81 percent in September 2012.  Food inflation has particularly been a cause of concern.  Trade and current account deficits widened to 10.3 percent and 4.2 percent of GDP in 2011-12 espectively.  The sharp decline in  the rupee during Q1 (April-June) of 2012 indicates among others, supply-demand imbalance in the domestic foreign exchange market dueto widening of CAD, slowdown in FII inflows and strengthening of US dollar in the international market due to the  safe haven status of US Treasuries. Like
many other currencies rupee also depreciated though sharply by 12.7 percent against the dollar in 2011-12 and by 7.8 percent in September 2012 compared to March 2012 though it has recovered marginally in the recent past.
During 2011-12, India‟s exports  and imports registered growth rates of 21.3 percent and  32.3  percent respectively.  Rising crude oil prices, along with increase in gold and silver prices contributed significantly to the import bill resulting in a high trade deficit growth of 55.6  percent.  In April-September 2012  export  growth was negative at (-)6.8 percent.  After a growth of  10.1 percent in January 2012, export growth has been  negative or low in the subsequent months. In September 2012 it was at (-)10.8 percent.  In fact,
exports have been falling month over month even in absolute terms since May 2012. During April-September 2012, import growth was also negative at (-)4.4 percent. Trade deficit in April-September 2012-13 is lower by 0.2 percent over corresponding period of previous year.
International Trade in Services: Global exports of services have shown consistent rise in the 2000s decade with a healthy average annual growth rate of around 9.5 percent, except in 2001 and 2009 - periods of global slowdown and economic crisis. In 2011, while world exports of commercial services grew
by 12 percent in Q1, 17 percent in Q2 and 14 percent in Q3, since Q4 the slowdown started with 5 percent growth, thus resulting in an overall growth of 11 percent in 2011. While in the first quarter of 2012 world exports and imports of commercial services grew by only 3 percent and  4 percent respectively, in the second quarter of 2012 both exports and imports of services grew by zero per cent.  Thus, trade in services has also been affected by the emerging global situation.
India’s Trade in Services: In 2011-12, India‟s services export growth was 7.1 percent, services  import growth was (-)6.9  percent and net services trade growth was 31.3  percent. Among the miscellaneous category, while software services exports grew by 12.2 percent, non-software services exports grew by a
negative (-)11.2 percent. Services export growth in Q1 of 2012-13 (April-June 2012) is at a low of 2.0  percent, while services import growth is at 15.9 percent. As a result, growth in net services trade is negative at (-) 13 percent. In July and August 2012, net services trade growths were  1.3  and  (-)4.8 per cent, respectively. Thus lesser cushion is available from services trade to trade deficit this year.
The challenges and Policy options on the Trade front for India: The challenges for India on the trade front are many.  Some are due to the current emerging global situation and some are systemic and long term in nature.
Macro and long term challenges and policies: While the Government has initiated second generation reforms, in the trade sector these could include further lowering of tariffs to ASEAN levels, while carefully taking note of domestic concerns and simultaneously removing duty benefit schemes which may become redundant in a low tariff regime. While India is relatively less vulnerable to the developments in the US, EU, and other developed countries due to its diversification of exports to Asia and ASEAN, there are concerns on the bilateral trade deficit front with countries like China and Switzerland. While substantial progress has been achieved on the market diversification front, a lot more needs to be done on the product diversification front as India‟s export presence is limited in the top items of world trade. While India has made new forays in skill-and capital-Intensive exports like information technology (IT), gems and jewellery, and engineering goods, it is losing steam in its traditional areas of strength, i.e. in the labour-intensive exports like textiles, leather and leather manufactures, handicrafts, and carpets. India‟s push towards regional and bilateral agreements should result in meaningful and result-oriented FTAs and CECAs, which carefully avoid inverted duties and take care of domestic concerns.  A more conducive environment for trade in services can be created by liberalizing FDI inflows as FDI and trade in services have a close relationship given the nature of intra-firm trade of multinational parent firms with affiliates.
Rationalizing taxes in services like shipping and telecom, going forward with totalization agreements, streamlining domestic regulations like licensing requirements & procedures and technical standards can also help in the growth and export of services.
(By Dr. H.A.C. Prasad, Ministry of Finance, GOI)

Union Finance Minister's Statement on CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (CAD)


The Current Account Deficit, for the first half of the current year (2012-13) stood at US$ 38.7 billion or 4.6% of GDP.    The main contributors to the CAD were
 Exports recorded a sharp decline of 7.4%, while imports recorded a smaller decline of 4.3% leading to widening of the trade deficit. Of the imports, gold imports amounted to US$ 20.25 billion.
 This was partly made up by an increase in services exports of 4.2% and, consequently, surplus in services which amounted to US$ 29.6 billion.
 Remittances of US$ 32.9 billion.
Notwithstanding the widening of the CAD, the positive aspect is that the CAD was financed without drawing on reserves.  This was mainly due to adequate inflow of FDI (US$ 12.8 billion) and FII (US$ 6.2 billion).  In addition, external commercial borrowing amounted to US$ 1.7 billion. The net result is that we have not drawn on the foreign exchange reserves and, in fact, there is a marginal accretion of US$ 0.4 billion to the foreign exchange reserves.
As would be evident, gold imports constituted a substantial chunk of the imports and is a huge drain on the Current Account.   Suppose gold imports had been one half of the actual level, that would have meant that our foreign exchange reserves would have increased by US$ 10.5 billion. I would therefore appeal to the people to moderate the demand for gold which leads to large imports of gold. I may add that we may be left with no choice but to make it a little more expensive to import gold. This matter is under Government’s consideration.
While the CAD  is indeed worrying, I think it is within our capacity to finance the CAD, thanks to FDI, FII and ECB.  I would like to once again underscore the crucial importance of FDI and FII.  As I have said before, attracting foreign funds to India has become an economic imperative.
I am confident that even if the year ends with a slightly larger CAD than last year, we would be able to finance the Current Account Deficit without drawing upon reserves.

(Related Definition: Current Account Deficit(CAD): The current account is one of the two primary components of the balance of payments, the other being capital account. It is the sum of the balance of trade (i.e., net revenue on exports minus payments for imports), factor income (earnings on foreign investments minus payments made to foreign investors) and cash transfers.
The current account balance is one of two major measures of the nature of a country's foreign trade (the other being the net capital outflow). A current account surplus increases a country's net foreign assets by the corresponding amount, and a current account deficit does the reverse. Both government and private payments are included in the calculation. It is called the current account because goods and services are generally consumed in the current period.

A formula for calculating current accounts

Thus, one can see that a certain country's current account can be calculated by the following formula:
CA=(X-M)+NY+NCT
When CA is the current account, X and M the export and import of goods and services respectively, NY the net income from abroad, and NCT the net current transfers.)

[edit]



Excise revenue growth trails overall growth due to a narrow industrial base

By: V S Krishnan, Civil Servant


Central excise duty, one of India's major taxes, is second only to corporate tax and is expected to yield 18% of the total tax revenue of over Rs 10,70,000 crore in 2012-13. It, however, is not as buoyant as service tax (see table). 

This weakness, even in a period of high growth, owes more to the narrow industrial structure, constitutional provisions for levy of the tax and generous scheme of SSI exemptions, than to output growth trends. 

India has only 1.20 lakh units paying excise duty. This narrow industrial base stems from the Second Plan's emphasis on high-skill and high-valueadded industries. There was comparative neglect of mass consumer industries such as textiles, food processing and leather. 

India failed to develop an equivalent of China's town and village enterprises that absorbed a lot of labour from agriculture, leading to mass industrialisation. 

Pranab Bardhan, in his recent book Awakening Giants: Feet of Clay, points out that manufacturing firms (excluding private household enterprises) employing 6-9 workers contributed to 42% of industrial employment while units employing 500-plus workers absorbed a further 23%. This bipolar distribution of manufacturing firms concentrated at the two extremities of the industrial spectrum left a huge gap in the middle. 

The statute links dutiability to the 'activity of manufacture' as distinct from 'value addition' in manufacture. Alarge number of value-adding activities such as repairs and fabrication are kept out of the tax net. 

Further, the excise exemptions for small-scale units have been too generous: up to turnover of Rs 4 crore in the previous years and complete exemption up toRs 1.5 crore in the current year. However, income-tax audit and discharge of both income tax and sales tax are mandated for units with an annual turnover of Rs 60 lakh or more. 


Excise revenue growth trails overall growth because of a narrow industrial base
The threshold limit of exemption of up to Rs 1.5 crore is higher than the threshold limits in the Rs 30-40 lakh in countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Brazil. 

The other factor that makes it difficult to deduce growth in central excise revenue from trends in the industrial index of manufacturing is the mismatch between the importance of various goods segments in the excise revenue basket and the index of output. 

The top five industries for central excise revenue are petroleum and petroleum products 42%, cigarettes and other tobacco products 8%, iron and steel products 8%, cement 5% and automobiles 4%. Their weight in the manufacturing index are: petroleum and petroleum products 4%, cigarettes and other tobacco products 2%, iron and steel products 3%, cement 5% and automobiles 4%. 

Therefore, while the top five industries account for 67% of central excise revenue, they have a weight of only 18% in the manufacturing segment of the industrial index (excluding mining and electricity). 

Therefore, factors determining the growth of central excise revenues are not so much the overall growth of themanufacturing sector as the sectoral composition of this growth. This leads to a situation where central excise revenue could grow even if the manufacturing index is down, as is happening in this fiscal year It is possible that some of the conundrums may fade away in future. The introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) would broad-base the levy of central excise duty that would be based on value addition in themanufacturing sector rather than linked to the 'activity of manufacture'. 

The GST regime also proposes to lower the threshold of SSI exemptions and bring them on par with states' threshold limit of exemption of Rs 10 lakh. Finally, the implementation of the National Manufacturing Policy may, perhaps, give a fillip to development of labour-intensive industries such as textiles, food processing, leather, light metal fabrication and auto parts. 

But, for now, the narrow industrial base will continue to hobble buoyancy in the growth of central excise revenue that still mainly depends on the fortunes of the petroleum and tobacco sectors. 

More than 350 years ago, John Baptist Colbert, Louis XIV's treasury minister, pithily remarked, "The art oftaxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest amount of feathers with the smallest amount of hissing." In India, the hissing of the smaller geese has been so loud that plucking has been confined to a few large, excluding the many small.
(Source: Economic Times, 5 January, 2013)