By Dilip Cherian
With the huge `280 crore assets scandal in the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) having just come to the fore, it looks like 2011 may be the year when babus are finally forced to disclose their assets. The man at the vanguard of the campaign is Bihar’s reformist chief minister Nitish Kumar. Though by no means the only political leader keen to bring babus’ assets into the public domain, Mr Kumar is clearly the most successful so far.
He has apparently ordered IAS babus in Bihar to declare their assets by month-end. Considering that he has kept his word on punishing corrupt babus by confiscating their personal property, the nation now waits to see whether fear of Mr Kumar can make Bihar’s babus fall in line.
Last year, the governments in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh also took steps in this direction. But at present all eyes are on Mr Kumar. Because if it works in Bihar, it must work elsewhere, say the jungle drums.
Upward Ho!
For most state civil service babus, getting into the coveted IAS remains a dream. In Karnataka, for example, there are only five vacancies every year within the state IAS cadre for Karnataka State Administrative Service officials. This year, however, state babus have reason to be hopeful since the B.S. Yeddyurappa government has to fill 26 vacancies. According to chief secretary S.V. Ranganath, promotions of state babus were held up for two years because of a legal fracas, even as 10 state babus retired.
Clearly, there is a sense of urgency to the issue because of the inadequate number of administrative officers in Karnataka.
Apparently, due to staff shortage, the Karnataka government was forced to poach officers from the Indian Forest Service and place them in civil administration positions.
(Source: The Deccan Chronicle; January 23rd, 2011)
Monday, January 24, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Solutions to India's high food inflation
New Delhi : India's food inflation eased for the second straight week in January, tracking lower fruit and vegetable prices, but accelerating headline inflation in December is likely to put pressure on the central bank to raise rates at a policy review next week.
INDIA-FOOD INFLATION/FACTBOX
At 15.5 percent, food inflation remains high, though it has eased from the one-year high of 18.32 percent touched in late December, mainly on a spike in onion and tomato prices.
Here are some facts about what led to the sudden rise in food prices and how the government is likely to deal with it.
THE PROBLEM
Food inflation has been in double digits for most of last year despite a series of central bank rate hikes, prompting a central bank deputy governor to say that monetary tools are largely ineffective.
Unseasonable rains during the October-November harvesting season for onions in key growing states of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu spoilt much of the summer crop which led to a supply shortage.
Other food crops such as potatoes and tomatoes, which are grown around the same regions, also suffered.
While vegetables prices rose an annual 65 percent, onion prices skyrocketed nearly 100 percent on year, the latest government data showed.
Vegetables are part of the food basket which contribute more than 14 percent to the wholesale price index (WPI), which is the most widely watched gauge of prices in India.
SHORT FIXES
Vegetables like onions and potatoes are perishable, so imports are not feasible. As the government does not procure perishable commodities, unlike wheat and rice, there is no buffer stock for release during a supply crunch.
India recently contracted 1,000 tonnes of onion imports, but that is unlikely to help much as supply shortfall is estimated at 1 million tonnes this year.
A tweaking of duties may not help either as most of India's vegetable demand is met by local produce.
LATE CROP BOON
Cracking down on hoarders may help, even though that measure has yielded limited success so far.
But, the gradual arrival of late harvest of onions, tomatoes and potatoes to the markets has slightly eased the supply crunch. Late harvest accounts for a quarter of the annual production of these vegetables.
The government still estimates a shortfall of 1 million tonnes in onions this year, which is expected to keep prices high for some time. Food inflation is expected to stay in double digits until March, analysts say.
EXPORT BAN
India has already scrapped duty on some vegetable oils and pulses and banned exports in them as the country is a net importer of these commodities. The measures have helped keep prices relatively under check.
But, as India imports half its requirement of edible oils, an element of imported inflation would seep through as global prices rise.
The government can use tools like procurement price, called minimum support price in India, to incentivise producers to increase area under cultivation. Acreage under pulses till last week rose 5.8 percent to 14.5 million hectares, government data showed.
BOUNTIFUL GRAINS
India's grains stocks stood at 47.1 million tonnes against a target of 20 million tonnes. The government has banned exports of wheat and most forms of rice as global prices are higher. [ID:nDEL003838].
LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS
The government has a work-in-progress list for long-term supply-side solutions.
It has to pare the plethora of middlemen in the farm-to-fork chain by overhauling agricultural marketing regulations and introducing foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, both politically difficult to achieve.
But, by investing heavily in cold storage improvements and transportation, the government could help avoid price spikes in perishables like vegetables.
With 60 percent of India's workforce engaged in agriculture, which accounts for barely 15 percent of India's gross domestic product, the government needs to bring in land reforms, especially to tackle the problem of low agricultural productivity stemming from small land holdings and leading to stagnant yields.
LIMITED IMPACT
Monetary measures are largely ineffective in controlling what is a supply-side problem but the Indian central bank may intervene for the seventh time within a year to tackle the knock-on effects of high food inflation.
Headline inflation in December accelerated to above 8.4 pct and the Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise rates by at least 25 basis points in its Jan. 25 policy review.
(Source: Reuters,Jan 21 2011)
INDIA-FOOD INFLATION/FACTBOX
At 15.5 percent, food inflation remains high, though it has eased from the one-year high of 18.32 percent touched in late December, mainly on a spike in onion and tomato prices.
Here are some facts about what led to the sudden rise in food prices and how the government is likely to deal with it.
THE PROBLEM
Food inflation has been in double digits for most of last year despite a series of central bank rate hikes, prompting a central bank deputy governor to say that monetary tools are largely ineffective.
Unseasonable rains during the October-November harvesting season for onions in key growing states of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu spoilt much of the summer crop which led to a supply shortage.
Other food crops such as potatoes and tomatoes, which are grown around the same regions, also suffered.
While vegetables prices rose an annual 65 percent, onion prices skyrocketed nearly 100 percent on year, the latest government data showed.
Vegetables are part of the food basket which contribute more than 14 percent to the wholesale price index (WPI), which is the most widely watched gauge of prices in India.
SHORT FIXES
Vegetables like onions and potatoes are perishable, so imports are not feasible. As the government does not procure perishable commodities, unlike wheat and rice, there is no buffer stock for release during a supply crunch.
India recently contracted 1,000 tonnes of onion imports, but that is unlikely to help much as supply shortfall is estimated at 1 million tonnes this year.
A tweaking of duties may not help either as most of India's vegetable demand is met by local produce.
LATE CROP BOON
Cracking down on hoarders may help, even though that measure has yielded limited success so far.
But, the gradual arrival of late harvest of onions, tomatoes and potatoes to the markets has slightly eased the supply crunch. Late harvest accounts for a quarter of the annual production of these vegetables.
The government still estimates a shortfall of 1 million tonnes in onions this year, which is expected to keep prices high for some time. Food inflation is expected to stay in double digits until March, analysts say.
EXPORT BAN
India has already scrapped duty on some vegetable oils and pulses and banned exports in them as the country is a net importer of these commodities. The measures have helped keep prices relatively under check.
But, as India imports half its requirement of edible oils, an element of imported inflation would seep through as global prices rise.
The government can use tools like procurement price, called minimum support price in India, to incentivise producers to increase area under cultivation. Acreage under pulses till last week rose 5.8 percent to 14.5 million hectares, government data showed.
BOUNTIFUL GRAINS
India's grains stocks stood at 47.1 million tonnes against a target of 20 million tonnes. The government has banned exports of wheat and most forms of rice as global prices are higher. [ID:nDEL003838].
LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS
The government has a work-in-progress list for long-term supply-side solutions.
It has to pare the plethora of middlemen in the farm-to-fork chain by overhauling agricultural marketing regulations and introducing foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, both politically difficult to achieve.
But, by investing heavily in cold storage improvements and transportation, the government could help avoid price spikes in perishables like vegetables.
With 60 percent of India's workforce engaged in agriculture, which accounts for barely 15 percent of India's gross domestic product, the government needs to bring in land reforms, especially to tackle the problem of low agricultural productivity stemming from small land holdings and leading to stagnant yields.
LIMITED IMPACT
Monetary measures are largely ineffective in controlling what is a supply-side problem but the Indian central bank may intervene for the seventh time within a year to tackle the knock-on effects of high food inflation.
Headline inflation in December accelerated to above 8.4 pct and the Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise rates by at least 25 basis points in its Jan. 25 policy review.
(Source: Reuters,Jan 21 2011)
No GS Indian Economy class at ICSA on 27 January
There will no GS Indian Economy class on Thursday, 27 January at ICSA as I will be out of Kolkata to participate in an International Conference (Global Conclave)in New Delhi on 27-29 January, 2011. I will meet you again in the first week of February.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
CENSUS
What is Census? How is it useful?
The Indian Census is the most credible source of information on Demography (Population characteristics), Economic Activity, Literacy & Education, Housing & Household Amenities, Urbanization, Fertility and Mortality, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, Language, Religion, Migration, Disability and many other socio-cultural and demographic data since 1872. Census 2011 will be the 15th National Census of the country. This is the only source of primary data at village, town and ward level. It provides valuable information for planning and formulation of polices for Central & State Governments and is widely used by National & International agencies, scholars, business people, industrialists, and many more. The delimitation/reservation of Constituencies - Parliamentary/Assembly/Panchayats and other Local Bodies is also done on the basis of the demographic data thrown up by the Census. Census is the basis for reviewing the country's progress in the past decade, monitoring the on-going schemes of the Government and most importantly, plan for the future. That is why the slogan of Census 2011 is "Our Census, Our Future".
What is the National Population Register? What is its use?
The NPR would be a Register of usual residents of the country. The NPR will be a comprehensive identity database that would help in better targeting of the benefits and services under the Government schemes/programmes, improve planning and help strengthen security of the country. This is being done for the first time in the country.
How will both these exercises be conducted?
The Census is a statutory exercise conducted under the provisions of the Census Act 1948 and Rules made there under. The NPR is being created under the provisions of the Citizenship Act and Rules.
Census Process:
The Census process involves visiting each and every household and gathering particulars by asking questions and filling up Census Forms. The information collected about individuals is kept absolutely confidential. In fact this information is not accessible even to Courts of law. After the field work is over the forms are transported to data processing centres located at 15 cities across the country. The data processing will be done using sophisticated software called Intelligent Character Recognition Software (ICR). This technology was pioneered by India in Census 2001 has become the benchmark for Censuses all around the globe. This involves the scanning of the Census Forms at high speed and extracting the data automatically using computer software. This revolutionary technology has enabled the processing of the voluminous data in a very short time and saving a huge amount of manual labour and cost.
NPR Process:
Details such as Name, Date of Birth, Sex, Present Address, Permanent Address, Names of Father, Mother and Spouse etc will be gathered by visiting each and every household. All usual residents will be eligible to be included irrespective of their Nationality. Each and every household will be given an Acknowledgement Slip at the time of enumeration. The data will then be entered into computers in the local language of the State as well as in English. Once this database has been created, biometrics such as photograph, 10 fingerprints and probably Iris information will be added for all persons aged 15 years and above. This will be done by arranging camps at every village and at the ward level in every town. Each household will be required to bring the Acknowledgement Slip to such camps. Those who miss these camps will be given the opportunity to present themselves at permanent NPR Centres to be set up at the Tehsil/Town level. In the next step, data will be printed out and displayed at prominent places within the village and ward for the public to see. Objections will be sought and registered at this stage. Each of these objections will then be enquired into by the local Revenue Department Officer and a proper disposal given in writing. Persons aggrieved by such order have a right of appeal to the Tehsildar and then to the District Collector. Once this process is over, the lists will be placed in the Gram Sabha in villages and the Ward Committee in towns. Claims and Objections will be received at this stage also and dealt with in the same manner described above. The Gram Sabha/Ward Committee has to give its clearance or objection within a fixed period of time after which it will be deemed that the lists have been cleared. The lists thus authenticated will then be sent to the Unique Identity Authority of India (UIDAI) for de-duplication and issue of UID Numbers. All duplicates will be eliminated at this stage based on comparison of biometrics. Unique ID numbers will also be generated for every person. The cleaned database along with the UID Number will then be sent back to the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India (ORG&CCI) and would form the National Population Register. As the UID system works on the basis of biometric de-duplication, in the case of persons of age 15 years and above (for whom biometrics is available), the UID Number will be available for each individual. For those below the age of 15 years (for whom biometrics is not available), the UID Number will be linked to the parent or guardian.
Will an Identity Card be given?
The National Population Register would have the data of every person enumerated during the Census operations irrespective of age. It would also have the biometric data and UID Number of every person of age 15 years and above. National Identity Cards will be given in a phased manner to all usual residents by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India. The issue of Cards will be done in Coastal Villages to start with. After this the coastal Towns will be covered and so on till the entire country is covered.
What is the Link between NPR and Unique ID Authority of India (UIDAI)?
The data collected in the NPR will be subjected to de-duplication by the UIDAI. After de-duplication, the UIDAI will issue a UID Number. This UID Number will be part of the NPR and the NPR Cards will bear this UID Number. The maintenance of the NPR database and updating subsequently will be done by the Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India.
Census Concepts
Crude birth rate = (Number of live births during the year)/(Mid-year population) x 1000
Age-specific fertility = (Number of live births in a particular age-group)/(Mid-year female population of the same age-group) x 1000
General fertility rate (GFR) = (Number of live births in a year)/(Mid-year female population in the age-group (15-49) years) x 1000
Crude death rate (CDR) = (Number of deaths during the year)/(Mid-year population ) x 1000
Infant mortality rate (IMR) = (Number of infant deaths during the year)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Neo-natal mortality rate (NMR) = (Number of infant deaths of < than 29 days during the ear)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Ancient and Medieval Censuses
India
The Harappa and Mohanjo-Daro excavations reveal that "as far back as the 3rd or 4th millennium BC and probably much earlier still, India was in possession of a highly developed civilization with large and populous cities, well built houses, temples and public buildings of brick and many other amenities enjoyed during that period by the peoples of Mesopotamia and Egypt". The celebrated
'Arthashastra', the Principles of Government, evolved by one of the greatest geniuses of political administration, Kautilya during the days of Mauryas in the third BC, prescribed the collection of population statistics as a measure of state policy for the purpose of taxation.
Egypt
Censuses in Egypt are said to have been taken during the early Pharaonic period in 3340 BC and in 3050 BC.
China
The world's oldest extant census data comes from China sometime before the Xia Dynasty, over 4,000 years ago, counting some 13 million people. The second oldest extant data in the world comes from the Han Dynasty, in what is perhaps China's most well-known ancient census taken in the fall of 2 CE. This is considered by scholars to be quite accurate. By that time, there were 57.67 million people registered in 12.36 million households living in China. The third oldest data in the world is also from the Han Dynasty, dating back to 144 CE, when only 49.73 million people living in 9.94 million households were counted. Mass migrations into what is today southern China are believed to be behind this massive demographic decline. Numerous other census data survives from Imperial China.
World Population (Estimated)
10000 BCE – 1 Million
5000 BCE – 15 Million
1 CE – 200 Million
1000 CE – 310 Million
1950 CE – 2519 Million
2009 CE – 6756 Million
Milestone in World Population
1804 – 1 Billion
1927 – 2 Billion (123 years later)
1960 – 3 Billion (33 years later)
1974 – 4 Billion (14 years later)
1987 – 5 Billion (13 years later)
1999 – 6 Billion (12 years later)
Census of India, 2001
The Census of India 2001, is historic and epoch making, being the first census of the twenty-first century and the third millennium. It reveals benchmark data on the state of abundant human resources available in the country, their demography, culture and economic structure at a juncture, which marks a centennial and millennial transition. The population enumeration of 2001 census was undertaken during 9-28 February 2001 with a revisional round from 1-5 March 2001. The census moment, the referral time at which the snapshot of the population is taken was 00.00 hours of 1 March 2001. Until the 1991 Census, the sunrise of 1 March was taken to be the census moment. The houseless population, as has been the usual practice, was enumerated on the night of 28 February 2001.
POPULATION
India’s population as on 1 March 2001 stood at 1,028 million (532.1 million males and 496.4 million females). India accounts for a meagre 2.4 per cent of the world surface area of 135.79 million sq km. Yet, it supports and sustains a whopping 16.7 per cent of the world population. The population of India, which at the turn of the twentieth century was around 238.4 million, increased to reach 1,028 million at the dawn of the twenty-first century. The population of India as recorded at each decennial census from 1901 has grown steadily except for a decrease during 1911-21. The per cent decadal growth of population in the inter-censal period 1991-2001 varies from a low of 9.43 in Kerala to a very high 64.53 in Nagaland. Delhi with 47.02 per cent, Chandigarh with 40.28 per cent and Sikkim with 33.06 per cent registered very high growth rates. In addition to Kerala, Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh registered low growth rates during 1991-2001.
POPULATION DENSITY
One of the important indices of population concentration is the density of population. It is defined as the number of persons per sq km. The population density of India in 2001 was 324 per sq km. The density of population was increased in all States and Union Territories between 1991 and 2001. Among major states, West Bengal is still the most thickly populated state with a population density of 903 in 2001. Bihar is now the second highest densely populated state pushing Kerala to the third place.
SEX RATIO
Sex ratio, defined as the number of females per thousand males is an important social indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equality between males and females in a society at a given point of time. The sex ratio in the country had always remained unfavourable to females. It was 972 at the beginning of the 20th century and thereafter showed continuous decline until 1941.
LITERACY
For the purpose of census 2001, a person aged seven and above, who can both read and write with understanding in any language, is treated as literate. A person, who can only read but cannot write, is not literate. In the censuses prior to 1991, children below five years of age were necessarily treated as illiterates. The results of 2001 census reveal that there has been an increase in literacy in the country. The literacy rate in the country is 64.84 per cent, 75.26 for males and 53.67
for females. Kerala retained its position by being on top with a 90.86 per cent literacy rate, closely followed by Mizoram (88.80 per cent) and Lakshadweep (86.66 per cent). Bihar with a literacy rate of 47.00 per cent ranks last in the country preceded by Jharkhand (53.56 per cent) and Jammu and Kashmir (55.52 per cent). Kerala also occupies the top spot in the country both in male literacy with 94.24 per cent and female literacy with 87.72 per cent. On the contrary, Bihar has recorded the lowest literacy rates both in case of males (59.68 per cent) and females (33.12 per cent). (Source: Publication Division, GOI)
Census of India, 2001
Area :
Area of India: 3,287,240 Sq km
Largest State: Rajasthan, 342,239 Sq km
Smallest State: Goa, 3,702 Sq km
Largest Union Territory: Andaman & Nicobar Islands, 8,249 Sq km
Smallest Union Territory: Lakshadweep, 32Sq km
Largest District: Kachchh (Gujarat), 45,652 Sq km
Smallest District: Mahe ( Pondicherry ), 9 Sq km
Administrative Divisions :
No. of States: 28
No. of Union Territories: 7
No. of Districts: 593
No. of CD Blocks: 3,799
No. of Inhabited Villages: 593,731
Population :
Persons: 1,028,737,436
Males: 532,223,090 (51.74%)
Females: 496,514,346 (48.26%)
Highest / Lowest Population :
State with Highest Population: Uttar Pradesh, 166,197,921
State with Lowest Population: Sikkim, 540,851
UT with Highest Population: Delhi, 13,850,507
UT with Lowest Population: Lakshadweep, 60,650
District with Highest Population: Medinipur (West Bengal) 9,610,788
District with Lowest Population: Yanam (Pondicherry) 31,394
Population Density: India: 325 Persons / Sq. Km
State with Highest Population Density: West Bengal, 903 Persons / Sq. Km
State with Lowest Population Density: Arunachal Pradesh, 13 Persons / Sq. Km
UT with Highest Population Density: Delhi, 9,340 Persons / Sq. Km
UT with Lowest Population Density: Andaman & Nicobar Islands 43 Persons / Sq. Km
District with Highest Population Density:North East (Delhi) 29,468 Persons / Sq. Km
District with Lowest Population Density: Lahul & Spiti(HP) 2 Persons / Sq. Km
Rural - Urban Distribution
Rural: 72.2%
Urban: 27.8%
State with highest proportion of Urban Population: Goa, 49.76%
State with lowest proportion of Urban Population: Himachal Pradesh, 9.30%
UT with highest proportion of Urban Population: Delhi, 93.18%
UT with lowest proportion of Urban Population: Dadra & Nagar Haveli, 22.89%
Sex ratio (females per thousand males)
India: 933
Rural: 946
Urban: 900
State with Highest Female Sex Ratio: Kerala, 1,058
State with Lowest Female Sex Ratio: Haryana, 861
UT with Highest Female Sex Ratio: Pondicherry, 1,001
UT with Lowest Female Sex Ratio: Daman & Diu, 710
District with Highest Female Sex Ratio: Mahe (Pondicherry), 1,147
District with Lowest Female Sex Ratio: Daman (Daman & Diu), 591
Age groups and percentage of population in that group to total population:
6 years and below 15.9%
7 to 14 years 19.4%
15 to 59 years 56.9%
60 years and above 7.5%
Literacy Rate: Persons Male Female
Total Literacy rate 64.8% 75.3% 53.7%
Rural Literacy rate 58.7% 70.7% 46.1%
Urban Literacy rate 79.9% 86.2% 72.9%
State with Highest Literacy Rate: Kerala 90.9% 94.2% 87.7%
State with Lowest Literacy Rate:
Bihar 47.0% 59.7% 3.1%
UT with Highest Literacy Rate:
Lakshadweep 86.7% 92.5% 80.5%
UT with Lowest Literacy Rate:
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 57.6% 71.2% 40.2%
District with Highest Literacy Rate: Overall: Aizwal, Mizoram 96.5%
Male: Mahe, Pondicherry 97.6%
Female: Aizwal, Mizoram 96.26%
District with Lowest Literacy Rate: Overall:
Dantewada, Tripura 30.17%
Male: Dantewada, Tripura 39.75%
Female: Shrawasti, UP 7.7%
Religious Population:
Hindus: 80.5%
Muslims : 13.4%
Christians : 2.3%
Sikhs : 1.9%
Buddhists : 0.8%
Jains : 0.4%
Other Religions: 0.6%
Religion not stated: 0.1%
Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes:
Scheduled Castes :
State with highest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Punjab (28.9 %)
State with lowest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Mizoram (0.03 %)
UT with highest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Chandigarh (17.5%)
UT with lowest proportion of Scheduled Castes : D & N Haveli (1.9% )
District with highest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Cooch Behar, WB (50.1%)
District with lowest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Lawngtlai, Mizoram(0.01%)
Scheduled Tribes:
State with highest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Mizoram (94.5 %)
State with lowest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Goa (0.04 %)
UT with highest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Lakshadweep (94.5 %)
UT with lowest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : A & N Islands (8.3 %)
District with highest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Sarchhip, Mizoram (98.1%)
District with lowest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Hathras, U.P (0.01%)
Official census in India
The first attempt was made in 1871 for whole of India by the British to conduct a general census at a given date for the purpose of calculating capitation rate and also to know the statistics of age, caste, religion, occupation, education and infirmity of the population in India. The first Census Commissioner of India was W. W. Plowden. From this census onwards, there have been population censuses continuously in every 10th year and 2011 census is the 15th census in India and 7th census after Independence.
Two phases of Indian Census 2011
First Phase – Houselisting, House Census and Creation of National Population Register 1st April 2010 to 30th Sep 2010 – 45 days in each State – may vary from State to State
Second Phase – Household Census of population enumeration 9th – 28th February 2011 - There will be a revisional round during 1st – 5th March 2011 for updating the information as on 00.00 hours of 1st March 2011. Census 2011 covers all 640 districts 5767 tehsils 7742 towns and more than 6 lakh villages in India. Scanning of data is done using ICR and OCR technology. They also plan
to take photos and finger prints of individuals, after the completion of second phase, as a continuous process.
What is Census? How is it useful?
The Indian Census is the most credible source of information on Demography (Population characteristics), Economic Activity, Literacy & Education, Housing & Household Amenities, Urbanization, Fertility and Mortality, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, Language, Religion, Migration, Disability and many other socio-cultural and demographic data since 1872. Census 2011 will be the 15th National Census of the country. This is the only source of primary data at village, town and ward level. It provides valuable information for planning and formulation of polices for Central & State Governments and is widely used by National & International agencies, scholars, business people, industrialists, and many more. The delimitation/reservation of Constituencies - Parliamentary/Assembly/Panchayats and other Local Bodies is also done on the basis of the demographic data thrown up by the Census. Census is the basis for reviewing the country's progress in the past decade, monitoring the on-going schemes of the Government and most importantly, plan for the future. That is why the slogan of Census 2011 is "Our Census, Our Future".
What is the National Population Register? What is its use?
The NPR would be a Register of usual residents of the country. The NPR will be a comprehensive identity database that would help in better targeting of the benefits and services under the Government schemes/programmes, improve planning and help strengthen security of the country. This is being done for the first time in the country.
How will both these exercises be conducted?
The Census is a statutory exercise conducted under the provisions of the Census Act 1948 and Rules made there under. The NPR is being created under the provisions of the Citizenship Act and Rules.
Census Process:
The Census process involves visiting each and every household and gathering particulars by asking questions and filling up Census Forms. The information collected about individuals is kept absolutely confidential. In fact this information is not accessible even to Courts of law. After the field work is over the forms are transported to data processing centres located at 15 cities across the country. The data processing will be done using sophisticated software called Intelligent Character Recognition Software (ICR). This technology was pioneered by India in Census 2001 has become the benchmark for Censuses all around the globe. This involves the scanning of the Census Forms at high speed and extracting the data automatically using computer software. This revolutionary technology has enabled the processing of the voluminous data in a very short time and saving a huge amount of manual labour and cost.
NPR Process:
Details such as Name, Date of Birth, Sex, Present Address, Permanent Address, Names of Father, Mother and Spouse etc will be gathered by visiting each and every household. All usual residents will be eligible to be included irrespective of their Nationality. Each and every household will be given an Acknowledgement Slip at the time of enumeration. The data will then be entered into computers in the local language of the State as well as in English. Once this database has been created, biometrics such as photograph, 10 fingerprints and probably Iris information will be added for all persons aged 15 years and above. This will be done by arranging camps at every village and at the ward level in every town. Each household will be required to bring the Acknowledgement Slip to such camps. Those who miss these camps will be given the opportunity to present themselves at permanent NPR Centres to be set up at the Tehsil/Town level. In the next step, data will be printed out and displayed at prominent places within the village and ward for the public to see. Objections will be sought and registered at this stage. Each of these objections will then be enquired into by the local Revenue Department Officer and a proper disposal given in writing. Persons aggrieved by such order have a right of appeal to the Tehsildar and then to the District Collector. Once this process is over, the lists will be placed in the Gram Sabha in villages and the Ward Committee in towns. Claims and Objections will be received at this stage also and dealt with in the same manner described above. The Gram Sabha/Ward Committee has to give its clearance or objection within a fixed period of time after which it will be deemed that the lists have been cleared. The lists thus authenticated will then be sent to the Unique Identity Authority of India (UIDAI) for de-duplication and issue of UID Numbers. All duplicates will be eliminated at this stage based on comparison of biometrics. Unique ID numbers will also be generated for every person. The cleaned database along with the UID Number will then be sent back to the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India (ORG&CCI) and would form the National Population Register. As the UID system works on the basis of biometric de-duplication, in the case of persons of age 15 years and above (for whom biometrics is available), the UID Number will be available for each individual. For those below the age of 15 years (for whom biometrics is not available), the UID Number will be linked to the parent or guardian.
Will an Identity Card be given?
The National Population Register would have the data of every person enumerated during the Census operations irrespective of age. It would also have the biometric data and UID Number of every person of age 15 years and above. National Identity Cards will be given in a phased manner to all usual residents by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India. The issue of Cards will be done in Coastal Villages to start with. After this the coastal Towns will be covered and so on till the entire country is covered.
What is the Link between NPR and Unique ID Authority of India (UIDAI)?
The data collected in the NPR will be subjected to de-duplication by the UIDAI. After de-duplication, the UIDAI will issue a UID Number. This UID Number will be part of the NPR and the NPR Cards will bear this UID Number. The maintenance of the NPR database and updating subsequently will be done by the Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India.
Census Concepts
Crude birth rate = (Number of live births during the year)/(Mid-year population) x 1000
Age-specific fertility = (Number of live births in a particular age-group)/(Mid-year female population of the same age-group) x 1000
General fertility rate (GFR) = (Number of live births in a year)/(Mid-year female population in the age-group (15-49) years) x 1000
Crude death rate (CDR) = (Number of deaths during the year)/(Mid-year population ) x 1000
Infant mortality rate (IMR) = (Number of infant deaths during the year)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Neo-natal mortality rate (NMR) = (Number of infant deaths of < than 29 days during the ear)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Ancient and Medieval Censuses
India
The Harappa and Mohanjo-Daro excavations reveal that "as far back as the 3rd or 4th millennium BC and probably much earlier still, India was in possession of a highly developed civilization with large and populous cities, well built houses, temples and public buildings of brick and many other amenities enjoyed during that period by the peoples of Mesopotamia and Egypt". The celebrated
'Arthashastra', the Principles of Government, evolved by one of the greatest geniuses of political administration, Kautilya during the days of Mauryas in the third BC, prescribed the collection of population statistics as a measure of state policy for the purpose of taxation.
Egypt
Censuses in Egypt are said to have been taken during the early Pharaonic period in 3340 BC and in 3050 BC.
China
The world's oldest extant census data comes from China sometime before the Xia Dynasty, over 4,000 years ago, counting some 13 million people. The second oldest extant data in the world comes from the Han Dynasty, in what is perhaps China's most well-known ancient census taken in the fall of 2 CE. This is considered by scholars to be quite accurate. By that time, there were 57.67 million people registered in 12.36 million households living in China. The third oldest data in the world is also from the Han Dynasty, dating back to 144 CE, when only 49.73 million people living in 9.94 million households were counted. Mass migrations into what is today southern China are believed to be behind this massive demographic decline. Numerous other census data survives from Imperial China.
World Population (Estimated)
10000 BCE – 1 Million
5000 BCE – 15 Million
1 CE – 200 Million
1000 CE – 310 Million
1950 CE – 2519 Million
2009 CE – 6756 Million
Milestone in World Population
1804 – 1 Billion
1927 – 2 Billion (123 years later)
1960 – 3 Billion (33 years later)
1974 – 4 Billion (14 years later)
1987 – 5 Billion (13 years later)
1999 – 6 Billion (12 years later)
Census of India, 2001
The Census of India 2001, is historic and epoch making, being the first census of the twenty-first century and the third millennium. It reveals benchmark data on the state of abundant human resources available in the country, their demography, culture and economic structure at a juncture, which marks a centennial and millennial transition. The population enumeration of 2001 census was undertaken during 9-28 February 2001 with a revisional round from 1-5 March 2001. The census moment, the referral time at which the snapshot of the population is taken was 00.00 hours of 1 March 2001. Until the 1991 Census, the sunrise of 1 March was taken to be the census moment. The houseless population, as has been the usual practice, was enumerated on the night of 28 February 2001.
POPULATION
India’s population as on 1 March 2001 stood at 1,028 million (532.1 million males and 496.4 million females). India accounts for a meagre 2.4 per cent of the world surface area of 135.79 million sq km. Yet, it supports and sustains a whopping 16.7 per cent of the world population. The population of India, which at the turn of the twentieth century was around 238.4 million, increased to reach 1,028 million at the dawn of the twenty-first century. The population of India as recorded at each decennial census from 1901 has grown steadily except for a decrease during 1911-21. The per cent decadal growth of population in the inter-censal period 1991-2001 varies from a low of 9.43 in Kerala to a very high 64.53 in Nagaland. Delhi with 47.02 per cent, Chandigarh with 40.28 per cent and Sikkim with 33.06 per cent registered very high growth rates. In addition to Kerala, Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh registered low growth rates during 1991-2001.
POPULATION DENSITY
One of the important indices of population concentration is the density of population. It is defined as the number of persons per sq km. The population density of India in 2001 was 324 per sq km. The density of population was increased in all States and Union Territories between 1991 and 2001. Among major states, West Bengal is still the most thickly populated state with a population density of 903 in 2001. Bihar is now the second highest densely populated state pushing Kerala to the third place.
SEX RATIO
Sex ratio, defined as the number of females per thousand males is an important social indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equality between males and females in a society at a given point of time. The sex ratio in the country had always remained unfavourable to females. It was 972 at the beginning of the 20th century and thereafter showed continuous decline until 1941.
LITERACY
For the purpose of census 2001, a person aged seven and above, who can both read and write with understanding in any language, is treated as literate. A person, who can only read but cannot write, is not literate. In the censuses prior to 1991, children below five years of age were necessarily treated as illiterates. The results of 2001 census reveal that there has been an increase in literacy in the country. The literacy rate in the country is 64.84 per cent, 75.26 for males and 53.67
for females. Kerala retained its position by being on top with a 90.86 per cent literacy rate, closely followed by Mizoram (88.80 per cent) and Lakshadweep (86.66 per cent). Bihar with a literacy rate of 47.00 per cent ranks last in the country preceded by Jharkhand (53.56 per cent) and Jammu and Kashmir (55.52 per cent). Kerala also occupies the top spot in the country both in male literacy with 94.24 per cent and female literacy with 87.72 per cent. On the contrary, Bihar has recorded the lowest literacy rates both in case of males (59.68 per cent) and females (33.12 per cent). (Source: Publication Division, GOI)
Census of India, 2001
Area :
Area of India: 3,287,240 Sq km
Largest State: Rajasthan, 342,239 Sq km
Smallest State: Goa, 3,702 Sq km
Largest Union Territory: Andaman & Nicobar Islands, 8,249 Sq km
Smallest Union Territory: Lakshadweep, 32Sq km
Largest District: Kachchh (Gujarat), 45,652 Sq km
Smallest District: Mahe ( Pondicherry ), 9 Sq km
Administrative Divisions :
No. of States: 28
No. of Union Territories: 7
No. of Districts: 593
No. of CD Blocks: 3,799
No. of Inhabited Villages: 593,731
Population :
Persons: 1,028,737,436
Males: 532,223,090 (51.74%)
Females: 496,514,346 (48.26%)
Highest / Lowest Population :
State with Highest Population: Uttar Pradesh, 166,197,921
State with Lowest Population: Sikkim, 540,851
UT with Highest Population: Delhi, 13,850,507
UT with Lowest Population: Lakshadweep, 60,650
District with Highest Population: Medinipur (West Bengal) 9,610,788
District with Lowest Population: Yanam (Pondicherry) 31,394
Population Density: India: 325 Persons / Sq. Km
State with Highest Population Density: West Bengal, 903 Persons / Sq. Km
State with Lowest Population Density: Arunachal Pradesh, 13 Persons / Sq. Km
UT with Highest Population Density: Delhi, 9,340 Persons / Sq. Km
UT with Lowest Population Density: Andaman & Nicobar Islands 43 Persons / Sq. Km
District with Highest Population Density:North East (Delhi) 29,468 Persons / Sq. Km
District with Lowest Population Density: Lahul & Spiti(HP) 2 Persons / Sq. Km
Rural - Urban Distribution
Rural: 72.2%
Urban: 27.8%
State with highest proportion of Urban Population: Goa, 49.76%
State with lowest proportion of Urban Population: Himachal Pradesh, 9.30%
UT with highest proportion of Urban Population: Delhi, 93.18%
UT with lowest proportion of Urban Population: Dadra & Nagar Haveli, 22.89%
Sex ratio (females per thousand males)
India: 933
Rural: 946
Urban: 900
State with Highest Female Sex Ratio: Kerala, 1,058
State with Lowest Female Sex Ratio: Haryana, 861
UT with Highest Female Sex Ratio: Pondicherry, 1,001
UT with Lowest Female Sex Ratio: Daman & Diu, 710
District with Highest Female Sex Ratio: Mahe (Pondicherry), 1,147
District with Lowest Female Sex Ratio: Daman (Daman & Diu), 591
Age groups and percentage of population in that group to total population:
6 years and below 15.9%
7 to 14 years 19.4%
15 to 59 years 56.9%
60 years and above 7.5%
Literacy Rate: Persons Male Female
Total Literacy rate 64.8% 75.3% 53.7%
Rural Literacy rate 58.7% 70.7% 46.1%
Urban Literacy rate 79.9% 86.2% 72.9%
State with Highest Literacy Rate: Kerala 90.9% 94.2% 87.7%
State with Lowest Literacy Rate:
Bihar 47.0% 59.7% 3.1%
UT with Highest Literacy Rate:
Lakshadweep 86.7% 92.5% 80.5%
UT with Lowest Literacy Rate:
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 57.6% 71.2% 40.2%
District with Highest Literacy Rate: Overall: Aizwal, Mizoram 96.5%
Male: Mahe, Pondicherry 97.6%
Female: Aizwal, Mizoram 96.26%
District with Lowest Literacy Rate: Overall:
Dantewada, Tripura 30.17%
Male: Dantewada, Tripura 39.75%
Female: Shrawasti, UP 7.7%
Religious Population:
Hindus: 80.5%
Muslims : 13.4%
Christians : 2.3%
Sikhs : 1.9%
Buddhists : 0.8%
Jains : 0.4%
Other Religions: 0.6%
Religion not stated: 0.1%
Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes:
Scheduled Castes :
State with highest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Punjab (28.9 %)
State with lowest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Mizoram (0.03 %)
UT with highest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Chandigarh (17.5%)
UT with lowest proportion of Scheduled Castes : D & N Haveli (1.9% )
District with highest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Cooch Behar, WB (50.1%)
District with lowest proportion of Scheduled Castes : Lawngtlai, Mizoram(0.01%)
Scheduled Tribes:
State with highest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Mizoram (94.5 %)
State with lowest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Goa (0.04 %)
UT with highest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Lakshadweep (94.5 %)
UT with lowest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : A & N Islands (8.3 %)
District with highest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Sarchhip, Mizoram (98.1%)
District with lowest proportion of Scheduled Tribes : Hathras, U.P (0.01%)
Official census in India
The first attempt was made in 1871 for whole of India by the British to conduct a general census at a given date for the purpose of calculating capitation rate and also to know the statistics of age, caste, religion, occupation, education and infirmity of the population in India. The first Census Commissioner of India was W. W. Plowden. From this census onwards, there have been population censuses continuously in every 10th year and 2011 census is the 15th census in India and 7th census after Independence.
Two phases of Indian Census 2011
First Phase – Houselisting, House Census and Creation of National Population Register 1st April 2010 to 30th Sep 2010 – 45 days in each State – may vary from State to State
Second Phase – Household Census of population enumeration 9th – 28th February 2011 - There will be a revisional round during 1st – 5th March 2011 for updating the information as on 00.00 hours of 1st March 2011. Census 2011 covers all 640 districts 5767 tehsils 7742 towns and more than 6 lakh villages in India. Scanning of data is done using ICR and OCR technology. They also plan
to take photos and finger prints of individuals, after the completion of second phase, as a continuous process.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Indian inflation waiting to strike
Indian inflation waiting to strike
By Kunal Kumar Kundu
BANGALORE - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during its monetary policy review this month kept its key interest rate unchanged, much to the relief of market participants. While the expectation was for a rate increase, the softening of the inflation number (as shown by the wholesale price index, or WPI) just prior to the policy review raised hopes of the status quo being maintained. The RBI obliged.
The relief was palpable, given that the RBI remains one of the most hawkish central banks in Asia with six successive rate increases from March this year. This pause comes after the RBI increased the lending (or repo) rate by 1.5 percentage points to
6.25% and the reverse repo by 2 percentage points to 5.25%.
While growth concerns took precedence over inflationary risk, aided by the drop in year-on-year inflation to 7.48% in November from 8.58% in October, the RBI kept its tone quite hawkish and has left the door open for further rate increases next time round. Clearly, the RBI is not very comfortable with the inflation outlook, and rightly so. I believe inflation is likely to be a bigger worry next year than is the general perception.
To understand this, consider three important factors - agriculture production, commodity prices and capital inflows.
Agriculture
The Indian agriculture sector has historically remained one of the most under-invested sectors and this is coming back to haunt the country. Not surprisingly, for the past two decades, India's foodgrain production has lagged behind the population growth rate.
In the decade of the 1980s, the population grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, while foodgrain production rose by 3.1% CAGR. Thereafter, the growth rate of foodgrain production slowed down considerably, so much so that during the current decade (till financial year 2009-2010), the growth rate of foodgrain production was way below that of population increase.
Monsoon failures were a contributing factor this decade, helping to lead to a 19.2% shortfall in rainfall (compared with normal years) in 2002-03, a 13.8% shortfall in 2004-05 and a 29.2% shortfall during 2009-10. This not only indicates India's inability to reduce dependence on the monsoon (mainly because of a lack of adequate investment in irrigational infrastructure) but also an inability to increase productivity of foodgrain (again because of inadequate investment).
According to RBI data, while CAGR of foodgrain (kg/hectare) productivity peaked at 4.41% in the 1980s, it started to slide ominously thereafter. The growth rate fell to 2.36% in the 1990s, and to 1.06% during the first eight years of the current decade.
Not surprisingly, food inflation in India continues to remain inordinately high. After briefly flirting with a single digit rate (a high one at that), it is inching back toward the double digits (rising to 9.46% year-on-year in the week ended December 4 from 8.60% the previous week. Available indications are that food inflation will comfortably cross the double digit mark sooner rather than later.
Commodity prices
To my understanding, the biggest inflation risk is in high commodity prices, which are expected to remain at an elevated level going forward. There are two important drivers for these - economic activity and investment activity.
Although the developed world is floundering, the onus of keeping global activity at a decent level lies squarely on the shoulders of emerging economies.
With the emerging economies being much more commodity intensive, the demand for commodities is expected to remain strong.
Another important driver of commodity prices is the increasing importance of commodities as an asset class. Against the background of the financial turmoil in 2008, commodity prices have corrected sharply. One of the biggest corrections has been observed in the oil price. After reaching a record high in July 2008 at US$147, it plummeted nearly 80% to touch US$32 within just five months. On a broader basis, the CRB Commodity Index, one of the most recognized indices to track commodity prices, has also experienced a significant loss since peaking in July 2008.
The main reasons for the sharp correction were global recession, a stronger dollar and rising risk aversion among financial investors. However, commodities have come back strongly on the back of strong growth, shown by the emerging market economies as well as increased flows of investment into commodities.
Among the various asset classes, currency is losing its sheen since there is a real threat of currency debasement, what with the developed economies experiencing high deficits and hoping to devalue their way out of their debt problems. Even the debt issuances of the developed economies, especially in Europe, are now looked at with suspicion as fears of default loom large.
The recent increase in the yield of US Treasuries reflects that investors' concerns are leading to lower demand. Real estate, as an asset class, is now hardly, if at all, attractive. Not surprisingly, therefore, commodities are back in favor.
While earlier investors could only take part in the commodity play either by owning shares of commodity companies or through physically owning some assets, the emergence of commodity index products and exchange traded funds (ETFs) including exchange traded commodities over the past few years has increased the popularity of commodities among investors. ETF Securities Ltd, a pioneer in exchange traded commodities has, for example, seen its assets under management (AUM) in only their physical gold and silver shares jump in a little more than a year to more than US$1.6 billion currently, from a mere $100 million in September 09.
ETF Securities recently launched similar funds holding copper, nickel and tin. Other exchange traded products (ETPs) backed by aluminum, lead and zinc will be introduced next year. ETF Securities, JPMorgan Chase & Co and BlackRock Inc have all announced plans to start such funds. According to available information, gold-backed ETPs accumulated 2,099 tonnes of bullion since they started in 2003, equal to nine years of US mine output. According to Barclays Capital, commodity assets under management rose $19 billion to a record $340 billion in October. It is also important to note here that commodities are an important hedge against inflation.
Indian prices of such industrial metals have also risen in sync with the global prices.
This is creeping into domestic inflation. India's automakers have already announced price increases, as has been the case with prices of many fast-moving consumer goods. Domestic prices of petrol and diesel have been raised again as global oil prices threaten to breach the $100 mark. This will again feed into inflation.
It is also important to note in this connection that the days of cheap oil are over. Oil exploration has now become a much more costly affair as more prospecting takes place further offshore. As a result, oil prices are unlikely to return to former lows even if economic activity weakens.
With such cost pressures building up, inflation in India will continue to remain at an elevated level. Unlike in the US, which is threatened by weak domestic demand, such demand in India is very strong. This, along with capacity constraints, means that the pricing power in India currently resides with producers. While capital investments have been taking place, new capacity will only come up after some gestation period. Until that time, producers will be able to pass on price increases as domestic demand stays firm.
Capital inflows
This is the third important source of inflation. As the Indian growth story remains strong, capital inflows will continue to be a major source of headaches for the RBI, particularly with the developed world economies continuing with their own brands of stimulus programs. Increased inflows of capital are forcing the RBI to intervene to prevent abrupt appreciation of the currency. As this increases, the money supply, inflation jacks up.
On the other hand, a rate increase to ward off inflation has the potential to increase capital inflows, adding to the dilemma. Although a high current account deficit (thanks mainly to India's over-dependence on imported oil) can help absorb the increasing inflows, given India's growth story, capital inflows will continue to be an important factor.
(Source: Asia Times Online, 23 December, 2010)
By Kunal Kumar Kundu
BANGALORE - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during its monetary policy review this month kept its key interest rate unchanged, much to the relief of market participants. While the expectation was for a rate increase, the softening of the inflation number (as shown by the wholesale price index, or WPI) just prior to the policy review raised hopes of the status quo being maintained. The RBI obliged.
The relief was palpable, given that the RBI remains one of the most hawkish central banks in Asia with six successive rate increases from March this year. This pause comes after the RBI increased the lending (or repo) rate by 1.5 percentage points to
6.25% and the reverse repo by 2 percentage points to 5.25%.
While growth concerns took precedence over inflationary risk, aided by the drop in year-on-year inflation to 7.48% in November from 8.58% in October, the RBI kept its tone quite hawkish and has left the door open for further rate increases next time round. Clearly, the RBI is not very comfortable with the inflation outlook, and rightly so. I believe inflation is likely to be a bigger worry next year than is the general perception.
To understand this, consider three important factors - agriculture production, commodity prices and capital inflows.
Agriculture
The Indian agriculture sector has historically remained one of the most under-invested sectors and this is coming back to haunt the country. Not surprisingly, for the past two decades, India's foodgrain production has lagged behind the population growth rate.
In the decade of the 1980s, the population grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, while foodgrain production rose by 3.1% CAGR. Thereafter, the growth rate of foodgrain production slowed down considerably, so much so that during the current decade (till financial year 2009-2010), the growth rate of foodgrain production was way below that of population increase.
Monsoon failures were a contributing factor this decade, helping to lead to a 19.2% shortfall in rainfall (compared with normal years) in 2002-03, a 13.8% shortfall in 2004-05 and a 29.2% shortfall during 2009-10. This not only indicates India's inability to reduce dependence on the monsoon (mainly because of a lack of adequate investment in irrigational infrastructure) but also an inability to increase productivity of foodgrain (again because of inadequate investment).
According to RBI data, while CAGR of foodgrain (kg/hectare) productivity peaked at 4.41% in the 1980s, it started to slide ominously thereafter. The growth rate fell to 2.36% in the 1990s, and to 1.06% during the first eight years of the current decade.
Not surprisingly, food inflation in India continues to remain inordinately high. After briefly flirting with a single digit rate (a high one at that), it is inching back toward the double digits (rising to 9.46% year-on-year in the week ended December 4 from 8.60% the previous week. Available indications are that food inflation will comfortably cross the double digit mark sooner rather than later.
Commodity prices
To my understanding, the biggest inflation risk is in high commodity prices, which are expected to remain at an elevated level going forward. There are two important drivers for these - economic activity and investment activity.
Although the developed world is floundering, the onus of keeping global activity at a decent level lies squarely on the shoulders of emerging economies.
With the emerging economies being much more commodity intensive, the demand for commodities is expected to remain strong.
Another important driver of commodity prices is the increasing importance of commodities as an asset class. Against the background of the financial turmoil in 2008, commodity prices have corrected sharply. One of the biggest corrections has been observed in the oil price. After reaching a record high in July 2008 at US$147, it plummeted nearly 80% to touch US$32 within just five months. On a broader basis, the CRB Commodity Index, one of the most recognized indices to track commodity prices, has also experienced a significant loss since peaking in July 2008.
The main reasons for the sharp correction were global recession, a stronger dollar and rising risk aversion among financial investors. However, commodities have come back strongly on the back of strong growth, shown by the emerging market economies as well as increased flows of investment into commodities.
Among the various asset classes, currency is losing its sheen since there is a real threat of currency debasement, what with the developed economies experiencing high deficits and hoping to devalue their way out of their debt problems. Even the debt issuances of the developed economies, especially in Europe, are now looked at with suspicion as fears of default loom large.
The recent increase in the yield of US Treasuries reflects that investors' concerns are leading to lower demand. Real estate, as an asset class, is now hardly, if at all, attractive. Not surprisingly, therefore, commodities are back in favor.
While earlier investors could only take part in the commodity play either by owning shares of commodity companies or through physically owning some assets, the emergence of commodity index products and exchange traded funds (ETFs) including exchange traded commodities over the past few years has increased the popularity of commodities among investors. ETF Securities Ltd, a pioneer in exchange traded commodities has, for example, seen its assets under management (AUM) in only their physical gold and silver shares jump in a little more than a year to more than US$1.6 billion currently, from a mere $100 million in September 09.
ETF Securities recently launched similar funds holding copper, nickel and tin. Other exchange traded products (ETPs) backed by aluminum, lead and zinc will be introduced next year. ETF Securities, JPMorgan Chase & Co and BlackRock Inc have all announced plans to start such funds. According to available information, gold-backed ETPs accumulated 2,099 tonnes of bullion since they started in 2003, equal to nine years of US mine output. According to Barclays Capital, commodity assets under management rose $19 billion to a record $340 billion in October. It is also important to note here that commodities are an important hedge against inflation.
Indian prices of such industrial metals have also risen in sync with the global prices.
This is creeping into domestic inflation. India's automakers have already announced price increases, as has been the case with prices of many fast-moving consumer goods. Domestic prices of petrol and diesel have been raised again as global oil prices threaten to breach the $100 mark. This will again feed into inflation.
It is also important to note in this connection that the days of cheap oil are over. Oil exploration has now become a much more costly affair as more prospecting takes place further offshore. As a result, oil prices are unlikely to return to former lows even if economic activity weakens.
With such cost pressures building up, inflation in India will continue to remain at an elevated level. Unlike in the US, which is threatened by weak domestic demand, such demand in India is very strong. This, along with capacity constraints, means that the pricing power in India currently resides with producers. While capital investments have been taking place, new capacity will only come up after some gestation period. Until that time, producers will be able to pass on price increases as domestic demand stays firm.
Capital inflows
This is the third important source of inflation. As the Indian growth story remains strong, capital inflows will continue to be a major source of headaches for the RBI, particularly with the developed world economies continuing with their own brands of stimulus programs. Increased inflows of capital are forcing the RBI to intervene to prevent abrupt appreciation of the currency. As this increases, the money supply, inflation jacks up.
On the other hand, a rate increase to ward off inflation has the potential to increase capital inflows, adding to the dilemma. Although a high current account deficit (thanks mainly to India's over-dependence on imported oil) can help absorb the increasing inflows, given India's growth story, capital inflows will continue to be an important factor.
(Source: Asia Times Online, 23 December, 2010)
Oil price over $100 'not unrealistic': Iran
Oil prices crossing the 100 dollars a barrel mark is possible but would not merit an emergency meeting of OPEC, Iran's oil minister Masoud Mirkazemi who currently heads the cartel said on Sunday.
"The price of 100 dollars is not unrealistic in this situation," Mirkazemi told reporters.
"Even if the oil price crosses 100 dollars a barrel there is no need for an emergency OPEC meeting. Some OPEC members believe there is no need for an emergency meeting even if oil reaches 110 or 120 dollars a barrel."
At the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light sweet crude for delivery in February closed at 91.54 dollars on Friday.
The rise in global oil prices has been attributed to a harsh winter hitting Europe and parts of North America, as well as growth in China and other developing nations.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has said speculation was also fuelling the price rise.
At its last meeting at Quito, the 12-nation cartel decided to leave production quotas unchanged, stressing the looming risks to the fragile global economic recovery.
Some OPEC members -- Iran, Venezuela and Libya -- were urging higher prices at Quito to above 100 dollars a barrel to offset what they said were rising production costs.
But OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia differed, saying between 70 and 80 dollars a barrel was a "fair price."
Iran took over the cartel's rotating presidency from January 1, the first time in 36 years that Tehran holds the leadership of the cartel which accounts for 40 percent of world output.
(Source: Hindusthan Times, 16 January, 2011)
"The price of 100 dollars is not unrealistic in this situation," Mirkazemi told reporters.
"Even if the oil price crosses 100 dollars a barrel there is no need for an emergency OPEC meeting. Some OPEC members believe there is no need for an emergency meeting even if oil reaches 110 or 120 dollars a barrel."
At the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light sweet crude for delivery in February closed at 91.54 dollars on Friday.
The rise in global oil prices has been attributed to a harsh winter hitting Europe and parts of North America, as well as growth in China and other developing nations.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has said speculation was also fuelling the price rise.
At its last meeting at Quito, the 12-nation cartel decided to leave production quotas unchanged, stressing the looming risks to the fragile global economic recovery.
Some OPEC members -- Iran, Venezuela and Libya -- were urging higher prices at Quito to above 100 dollars a barrel to offset what they said were rising production costs.
But OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia differed, saying between 70 and 80 dollars a barrel was a "fair price."
Iran took over the cartel's rotating presidency from January 1, the first time in 36 years that Tehran holds the leadership of the cartel which accounts for 40 percent of world output.
(Source: Hindusthan Times, 16 January, 2011)
India not after NRI money: Montek
NEW DELHI: Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Sunday said India was not after Non-Resident Indian (NRI) funds and that more than 95 per cent of the investments have come from domestic sources. India was reaching out to NRIs because it valued the long, socio-cultural footprint that we all shared, he said.
“I think we can get rid of the notion that we are connecting with the NRIs because we want investment. We are not reaching out to NRIs because we need money,” Mr. Ahluwalia said at the annual Pravasi Bhartiya Divas organised by the government in collaboration with the Confederation of Indian Industry here.
He said at least 95 per cent of investments in the country were domestic investments, adding that if the NRIs felt that their money was well spent here, they were welcome to invest. “If you think in another country you can do better, as an economist I will tell you that is exactly what you should do.”
Speaking on the occasion, Minister for Overseas Indian Affairs Valyar Ravi said the NRI share in the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country was just 1.3 per cent.
According to the latest government data, the cumulative FDI in the country since 1991 stands at $179.45 billion. Although the NRI investment in the country was not huge, the remittances from workers were significant. India received $46.9 billion as remittances during 2008-09. India is planning to double the investment in infrastructure to $1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) against $500 billion in the current Plan.
(Source: The Hindu, 15 Jan, 2011)
“I think we can get rid of the notion that we are connecting with the NRIs because we want investment. We are not reaching out to NRIs because we need money,” Mr. Ahluwalia said at the annual Pravasi Bhartiya Divas organised by the government in collaboration with the Confederation of Indian Industry here.
He said at least 95 per cent of investments in the country were domestic investments, adding that if the NRIs felt that their money was well spent here, they were welcome to invest. “If you think in another country you can do better, as an economist I will tell you that is exactly what you should do.”
Speaking on the occasion, Minister for Overseas Indian Affairs Valyar Ravi said the NRI share in the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country was just 1.3 per cent.
According to the latest government data, the cumulative FDI in the country since 1991 stands at $179.45 billion. Although the NRI investment in the country was not huge, the remittances from workers were significant. India received $46.9 billion as remittances during 2008-09. India is planning to double the investment in infrastructure to $1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) against $500 billion in the current Plan.
(Source: The Hindu, 15 Jan, 2011)
Ground rules for intervention
At the start of the new year, a number of developments suggest that monetary authorities around the world will have to grapple with the problem of cross-border flows on a priority basis. The International Monetary Fund, in a recent report, has listed it as one of the two key challenges for emerging economies during this year. Many of them, including India, continue to receive large capital inflows that are potentially destabilising. Perhaps, the most deleterious consequence of capital inflows has been the strengthening of domestic currency leading to a loss in export competitiveness. That, in turn, has led to a rash of currency wars — the phenomenon of several countries intervening in the currency markets simultaneously in order to ensure that their currencies will not be the only ones to rise. Such actions, though self-perpetuating and mutually injurious, have continued into 2011. Brazil, one of the countries most affected and whose finance minister was the first to speak of ‘currency wars' last year, has taken additional steps to check the rise of the real. Even Chile, which has a record of free market economic policy, followed suit by unveiling its own campaign of intervention. While it is clear that government action to stem the destabilising flows has become the rule, attention has begun to shift towards having some kind of ground rules for such intervention that can be monitored by an institution such as the IMF. A study released by the IMF last week underlined the need for such rules.
However, global coordination, besides being extremely complex, is impractical in the current context of disharmony among the major economic powers. Still, even the very advocacy of such ground rules recognises the considerable distance mainstream opinion on capital inflows has travelled over the past two decades. Both the World Bank and the IMF are now supporting the short-term measures of individual countries in curbing inflows. In the 1990s, the fascination for free market solutions led the U.S. Treasury and the IMF to promote capital account liberalisation. The effort floundered because of opposition from some emerging market countries and the East Asian currency crises that clearly demonstrated the dangers of the speculative capital reversing suddenly. Besides, as Jagdish Bhagwati has pointed out, it is wrong to equate free trade with liberalisation of the capital account. India has followed a measured approach to full convertibility of the rupee but so far desisted from imposing short-term controls on volatile capital. The need to bridge the widening current account deficit seems to be the reason. But then over-dependence on such flows is a matter of serious concern and a threat to macroeconomic stability.
(Source:The Hindu,15 Jan,2011)
However, global coordination, besides being extremely complex, is impractical in the current context of disharmony among the major economic powers. Still, even the very advocacy of such ground rules recognises the considerable distance mainstream opinion on capital inflows has travelled over the past two decades. Both the World Bank and the IMF are now supporting the short-term measures of individual countries in curbing inflows. In the 1990s, the fascination for free market solutions led the U.S. Treasury and the IMF to promote capital account liberalisation. The effort floundered because of opposition from some emerging market countries and the East Asian currency crises that clearly demonstrated the dangers of the speculative capital reversing suddenly. Besides, as Jagdish Bhagwati has pointed out, it is wrong to equate free trade with liberalisation of the capital account. India has followed a measured approach to full convertibility of the rupee but so far desisted from imposing short-term controls on volatile capital. The need to bridge the widening current account deficit seems to be the reason. But then over-dependence on such flows is a matter of serious concern and a threat to macroeconomic stability.
(Source:The Hindu,15 Jan,2011)
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Census 2001
CENSUS
The Census of India 2001, is historic and epoch making, being the first census of the twenty-first century and the third millennium. It reveals benchmark data on the state of abundant human resources available in the country, their demography, culture and economic structure at a juncture, which marks a centennial and millennial transition. The population enumeration of 2001 census was undertaken during 9-28 February 2001 with a revisional round from 1-5 March 2001. The census moment, the referral time at which the snapshot of the population is taken was 00.00 hours of 1 March 2001. Until the 1991 Census, the sunrise of 1 March was taken to be the census moment. The houseless population, as has been the usual practice, was enumerated on the night of 28 February 2001.
POPULATION
India’s population as on 1 March 2001 stood at 1,028 million (532.1 million males and 496.4 million females). India accounts for a meagre 2.4 per cent of the world surface area of 135.79 million sq km. Yet, it supports and sustains a whopping 16.7
per cent of the world population. The population of India, which at the turn of the twentieth century was around 238.4 million, increased to reach 1,028 million at the dawn of the twenty-first century. The population of India as recorded at each decennial census from 1901 has grown steadily except for a decrease during 1911-21. The per cent decadal growth of population in the inter-censal period 1991-2001 varies from a low of 9.43 in Kerala to a very high 64.53 in Nagaland. Delhi with 47.02 per cent, Chandigarh with 40.28 per cent and Sikkim with 33.06 per cent registered very high growth rates. In addition to Kerala, Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh registered low growth rates during 1991-2001.
POPULATION DENSITY
One of the important indices of population concentration is the density of population. It is defined as the number of persons per sq km. The population density of India in 2001 was 324 per sq km. The density of population was increased in all States and Union Territories between 1991 and 2001. Among major states, West Bengal is still the most thickly populated state with a population density of 903 in 2001. Bihar is now the second highest densely populated state pushing Kerala to the third place.
SEX RATIO
Sex ratio, defined as the number of females per thousand males is an important social indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equality between males and females in a society at a given point of time. The sex ratio in the country had always remained unfavourable to females. It was 972 at the beginning of the 20th century and thereafter showed continuous decline until 1941.
LITERACY
For the purpose of census 2001, a person aged seven and above, who can both read and write with understanding in any language, is treated as literate. A person, who can only read but cannot write, is not literate. In the censuses prior to 1991, children below five years of age were necessarily treated as illiterates. The results of 2001 census reveal that there has been an increase in literacy in the country. The literacy rate in the country is 64.84 per cent, 75.26 for males and 53.67
for females. Kerala retained its position by being on top with a 90.86 per cent literacy rate, closely followed by Mizoram (88.80 per cent) and Lakshadweep (86.66 per cent). Bihar with a literacy rate of 47.00 per cent ranks last in the country preceded by Jharkhand (53.56 per cent) and Jammu and Kashmir (55.52 per cent). Kerala also occupies the top spot in the country both in male literacy with 94.24 per cent and female literacy with 87.72 per cent. On the contrary, Bihar has recorded the lowest literacy rates both in case of males (59.68 per cent) and females (33.12 per cent). (Source: Publication Division, GOI)
The Census of India 2001, is historic and epoch making, being the first census of the twenty-first century and the third millennium. It reveals benchmark data on the state of abundant human resources available in the country, their demography, culture and economic structure at a juncture, which marks a centennial and millennial transition. The population enumeration of 2001 census was undertaken during 9-28 February 2001 with a revisional round from 1-5 March 2001. The census moment, the referral time at which the snapshot of the population is taken was 00.00 hours of 1 March 2001. Until the 1991 Census, the sunrise of 1 March was taken to be the census moment. The houseless population, as has been the usual practice, was enumerated on the night of 28 February 2001.
POPULATION
India’s population as on 1 March 2001 stood at 1,028 million (532.1 million males and 496.4 million females). India accounts for a meagre 2.4 per cent of the world surface area of 135.79 million sq km. Yet, it supports and sustains a whopping 16.7
per cent of the world population. The population of India, which at the turn of the twentieth century was around 238.4 million, increased to reach 1,028 million at the dawn of the twenty-first century. The population of India as recorded at each decennial census from 1901 has grown steadily except for a decrease during 1911-21. The per cent decadal growth of population in the inter-censal period 1991-2001 varies from a low of 9.43 in Kerala to a very high 64.53 in Nagaland. Delhi with 47.02 per cent, Chandigarh with 40.28 per cent and Sikkim with 33.06 per cent registered very high growth rates. In addition to Kerala, Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh registered low growth rates during 1991-2001.
POPULATION DENSITY
One of the important indices of population concentration is the density of population. It is defined as the number of persons per sq km. The population density of India in 2001 was 324 per sq km. The density of population was increased in all States and Union Territories between 1991 and 2001. Among major states, West Bengal is still the most thickly populated state with a population density of 903 in 2001. Bihar is now the second highest densely populated state pushing Kerala to the third place.
SEX RATIO
Sex ratio, defined as the number of females per thousand males is an important social indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equality between males and females in a society at a given point of time. The sex ratio in the country had always remained unfavourable to females. It was 972 at the beginning of the 20th century and thereafter showed continuous decline until 1941.
LITERACY
For the purpose of census 2001, a person aged seven and above, who can both read and write with understanding in any language, is treated as literate. A person, who can only read but cannot write, is not literate. In the censuses prior to 1991, children below five years of age were necessarily treated as illiterates. The results of 2001 census reveal that there has been an increase in literacy in the country. The literacy rate in the country is 64.84 per cent, 75.26 for males and 53.67
for females. Kerala retained its position by being on top with a 90.86 per cent literacy rate, closely followed by Mizoram (88.80 per cent) and Lakshadweep (86.66 per cent). Bihar with a literacy rate of 47.00 per cent ranks last in the country preceded by Jharkhand (53.56 per cent) and Jammu and Kashmir (55.52 per cent). Kerala also occupies the top spot in the country both in male literacy with 94.24 per cent and female literacy with 87.72 per cent. On the contrary, Bihar has recorded the lowest literacy rates both in case of males (59.68 per cent) and females (33.12 per cent). (Source: Publication Division, GOI)
Census Concepts
Crude birth rate=(Number of live births during the year)/(Mid-year population) x 1000
Age-specific fertility = (Number of live births in a particular age-group)/(Mid-year female population of the same age-group) x 1000
General fertility rate (GFR) = (Number of live births in a year)/(Mid-year female population in the age-group (15-49) years) x 1000
Crude death rate (CDR) =(Number of deaths during the year)/(Mid-year population ) x 1000
Infant mortality rate (IMR) = (Number of infant deaths during the year)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Neo-natal mortality rate (NMR) = (Number of infant deaths of < than 29 days during the year)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Age-specific fertility = (Number of live births in a particular age-group)/(Mid-year female population of the same age-group) x 1000
General fertility rate (GFR) = (Number of live births in a year)/(Mid-year female population in the age-group (15-49) years) x 1000
Crude death rate (CDR) =(Number of deaths during the year)/(Mid-year population ) x 1000
Infant mortality rate (IMR) = (Number of infant deaths during the year)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Neo-natal mortality rate (NMR) = (Number of infant deaths of < than 29 days during the year)/(Number of live births during the year) x 1000
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
ICSA--GS(Prelims) 2011 Handout---1
Introductory Lecture:
How to prepare for CSE Prelims:
The civil services examination is basically a test to choose suitable administrators. It tests the candidate right from the stage when one starts the preparation. One common misconception about the prelims is that it is a test of facts and figures. This is not so. A candidate should have the right frame of mind and the will power to succeed in the exam. A proper action plan is needed for the preparation itself since he /she will be tested for some essential qualities like power of retention, clarity of concepts, ability to identify the correct alternatives with efficiency and accuracy. All this requires a quick decision making power. Since the preliminary exam in particular is a test of endurance the candidate needs to prepare himself on the physical as well as mental level. The main constraint is the time one gets to answer questions. On an average one gets around 40 seconds for each general Studies question and around 50 seconds for each optional question. Added to this time constraint is the fact that the exam is conducted in the month of May which is usually the hottest month all over the country. One sure way of dealing with this stress is to count numbers or to take a few deep breaths. Meditation and Yoga also help in dealing with stress to a great extent.
Now we come to the actual preparation for the prelims exam. Since it is a multiple choice question paper, it needs a different preparation and a proper strategy. The first thing a candidate needs to bear in mind is that the examination is designed to evaluate certain qualities like a sharp memory and basic retention power. There are ways to increase one's memory like preparing charts. One gets confused when faced with mind boggling facts and figures. Important facts and figures can be simplified and represented on charts and they can be arranged in the form of tables or graphs. Another thing to remember is to make short and brief notes on each topic so that the entire syllabus can be revised a day before the exam. It is better to use diagrams and link words which make it easier to understand difficult concepts. One more technique to help in retaining information is the use of abbreviations. Since the syllabus involves exhaustive information abbreviations help you to remember it better. It is a good method to remember dates, facts and figures in a picture format and to break up complex names and places into smaller and simpler words. The last and the most important technique is doing regular revision. This helps in retaining the maximum information. A separate time slot should be given to doing not only regular but multiple revisions like daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Many candidates make a mistake of overloading themselves with lots of information and end up remembering nothing. One should be able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant information. Since the preliminary exam is an elimination round the candidate should also learn to focus only on the information needed and filter out the rest. It helps to discuss with friends and teachers but the most reliable way is to past years question papers for the optional subject whereas for the general studies paper, one should keep abreast with current events and information related to them.
An important thing to remember is that for this exam it is just enough to remember information but to understand the concepts well instead of memorizing facts and figures. The questions asked in the General Studies paper are of 10+2 level whereas for the optional subject it is graduation level. Therefore emphasis has to be on conceptual clarity. Any concept has to be understood with its origin, merits and de-merits, then it needs to be analysed with other relevant topics and lastly it has to be correlated with the events that have taken place during the year.
The preliminary exam requires candidates who have the acumen and the ability to choose the right option of many given options. This needs a proper method of elimination. It is a good idea to go through previous years and model question papers and solve as many as possible. Taking a mock test of a certain number of G.S. questions and optional questions would be a good practice and help to pick out the most appropriate option.
Each prelims paper is for two hours but a lot of time is wasted in signing attendance sheets etc, therefore there is a lot of need for effective Time Management not only for the exam but in the preparation as well. It is not enough to know the right answer but it has to be marked correctly on the answer sheet. Speed and Accuracy are important, so solving model question papers on a regular basis would be a great help.
A good presence of mind is needed to eliminate the least appropriate options and arrive at the right one. Tick out the least correct answer first and go on to the next option. Even when faced with a question for which you do not have a ready answer, with basic common sense and a good presence of mind, it is possible to make your guess a smart and a correct one.
Throughout the preparation for the prelims exam, it is important to remember that any topic or concept should not be studied in isolation. It is better to understand and establish a correlation between related concepts from other subjects and current events and happenings.
Even with all this preparation, it is necessary to have a positive attitude and a great amount of will power to succeed to achieve your goal, that of getting through the civil services examination with flying colors!
Success Secrets:
Hard work:
Remember that there is no substitute to hard work. All successful candidates say the hard work is one of the first pre-requisites for the success. There is no short cut to success and hard work never goes unrewarded.
Planning and systematic study:
Proper planning right from the stage of selection of optional subjects and selection of text books is absolutely necessary. Though there is no one way of studying, there are ways to study more effectively and with less stress and more enjoyment. It is important to know how to make use of the sources available to you in the best possible way. It is wise to take a three pronged approach to preparation, reading to learn, making effective notes and able to write answers to various kinds of questions.
Time management:
Effective time management is another requirement. If we spend our time in a frenzy of activity, we can achieve very little because we are not concentrating on the right things. We keep hearing the word "Busy" a lot. There are two kinds of ‘busy’(ness): chaotic, disorganized busy and calm, effective busy. It goes without saying that being the latter helps to pack in more productivity in your work. Improving our "effectiveness quotient" calls for mastery of basic time management skills.
Self-confidence:
Your self-confidence can make the difference. Your self-confidence should be at an all time high - always. You should be in the company of people, who can increase your motivational levels high and can inspire you. Form a group of close friends, who are as determined as you are to make it to the Civil Services Examination.
Dedication:
Be totally dedicated and focused in your studies. You have to sacrifice something like movies, parties, and entertainments etc at this stage of your life to achieve bigger things.
Patience:
As the CSE preparation spans a minimum of one year, right from the Preliminary stage to the interview state, it requires a lot of patience to maintain your tempo. One should not lose patience and the tempo throughout the preparation period till success.
Tips for answering questions at the Prelims:
( I am indebted to Mr. Parvez Dewan, IAS for giving me some of these tips.)
Don’t waste time:
Start answering the questions from the minute you get them. The time allotted is very limited, so waste no time on reading the entire question paper first. First answer all the question you are sure you know the answers to. Skip all the difficult questions in the first round: in this round if you find yourself stuck in a question for more than 10 seconds, just skip it.
However, keep making a small mark on the question paper to indicate that you have skipped that question in the first round. This will enable you to save time in the next rounds. If you answer a question in the second round, cancel this mark, so that in third round you know which questions still remain unanswered. Three rounds should be sufficient, bur you could break the process into a fourth round too.
Negative marking:
There will be penalty for wrong answers marked by a candidate in the objective type question papers. There will be four alternatives for the answer to every question. For each question for which a wrong answer has been given by the candidate, one-third (0.33) of the marks assigned to that question will be deducted as penalty. If a candidate gives more than one answer, it will be treated as a wrong even if one of the given answers happens to be correct and there will be same penalty. But if a question is left blank, i.e. no answer is given by the candidate, there will be no penalty for that question. Hence you need be very cautious in the second and third rounds when you are attempting those questions you are fairly, but not absolutely, certain about or those questions that you know absolutely nothing about.
New Syllabus:
The Preliminary Examination shall now comprise of two compulsory Papers of 200 marks each and of two hours duration each. Detailed below is the new syllabus and pattern of the Preliminary Examination, which is brought to the notice of the prospective candidates intending to appear at the Civil Services Examination (CSE) in 2011 onwards:
Paper I - (200 marks) Duration: Two hours
• Current events of national and international importance
• History of India and Indian National Movement
• Indian and World Geography - Physical, Social, Economic geography of India and the World.
• Indian Polity and Governance – Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc.
• Economic and Social Development – Sustainable Development, Poverty, Inclusion, Demographics, Social Sector Initiatives, etc.
• General issues on Environmental ecology, Bio-diversity and Climate Change - that do not require subject specialization
• General Science.
Paper II- (200 marks) Duration: Two hours
• Comprehension
• Interpersonal skills including communication skills;
• Logical reasoning and analytical ability
• Decision making and problem solving
• General mental ability
• Basic numeracy (numbers and their relations, orders of magnitude etc.) (Class X level), Data interpretation (charts, graphs, tables, data sufficiency etc. -Class X level)
• English Language Comprehension skills (Class X level).
• Questions relating to English Language Comprehension skills of Class X level (last item in the Syllabus of Paper-II) will be tested through passages from English language only without providing Hindi translation thereof in the question paper.
• The questions will be of multiple choice, objective type.
Analysis of GS Prelims questions related to Indian Economy (2005-2010):
The questions were asked on the following topics:
CSE GS Prelims 2010
1. Special Safeguard Mechanism;
2. Commercial Banks’ credit creation;
3. Trademark and Geographical Indication—difference;
4. SEZ Act;
5. Deflation;
6. Non-banking Financial Companies;
7. FRBM Act;
8. Stock Market Terms-Bear;
9. FDI;
10. UNCTAD-Emerging Economies;
11. UN Organization;
12. Economic terms—Meltdown, Recession and Slow down;
13. BRIC countries;
14. Artificial currency;
15. Stiglitz Commission;
16. International Food Safety Standards of WTO;
17. National Food Security Mission;
18. Interest on savings account;
19. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;
20. Sustainable Development;
21. Measures to control fiscal deficit;
22. UN-Habitat’s Global Reports on Human Settlements, 2009;
23. Inclusive Growth;
24. Fiscal Stimulus;
25. Union Budget—Department that prepares;
26. CRR;
27. Wholesale and Consumer Price Index;
28. National Rehabilitation and Resettlement Policy 2007;
29. Five Year Plans;
30. Women Development Schemes—Swadhar and Swayam Siddha;
31. National Investment Fund;
32. Forward Markets Commission;
33. Financial Inclusion;
34. Limited Liability Partnership Firm;
35. Banking Ombudsman in India;
36. Commercial Banks—Function;
37. Tax structure in India;
38. GDP;
39. International Development Association;
CSE GS Prelims 2009
1. Infant Mortality Rate;
2. Private companies—Business house associated;
3. Financial organization—Service provided;
4. International auctioneers;
5. Funds from UNFCC;
6. Carbon credit;
7. World Economic Forum;
8. The Climate Change Accountability Bill—country
9. Important events of Indian economy;
10. Population density in south Asian countries;
11. Different taxes in India;
12. Stock Exchanges in India;
13. Energy Statistics;
14. Stock indices in different countries;
15. CACP—National Food Security Mission;
16. Deepak Parekh Committee;
17. Five Year Plans-Objectives;
CSE GS Prelims 2008
1. Green Revolution –Father of;
2. Stock Index—S & P 500;
3. Census 2001—State with minimum population;
4. Prisoner’s Dilemma;
5. Census 2001—State with highest % of rural population;
6. World Summit on Sustainable Development;
7. Clean Development Mechanism-carbon credits;
8. Census 2001-Million plus cities;
9. Name of PSUs;
10. UN Monetary and Financial Conference;
11. BRIT (GOI);
12. Important International Organisations—India as a member;
13. Census 2001-Persons above 65 years of age;
14. GDP per capita, Wheat and Rice production;
15. Rural Electrification Policy;
16. National Population Policy,2000;
17. Biodiesel Mission;
18. Indira Gandhi Old Age Pension Scheme;
19. Scheme to provide training and skills to women in trades.
CSE GS Prelims 2007
1. National Child Labour Project and Gurupadaswamy Committee;
2. Aluminum company—Location;
3. National Highways and States;
4. International companies-Products;
5. Changing sectoral contribution to Indian GDP;
6. Steel Industry in India;
7. National Housing Bank;
8. Food grains production in India;
CSE GS Prelims 2006
1. Famous companies-area of work;
2. Census 2001-Area,Literacy rate, Population;
3. BOP concept;
4. Bharat Nirman Plan and National Rural Employment Guarantee Act,2005;
5. Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act;
6. Indonext;
7. Non nationalized Bank;
8. Value of India’s export and India’s share in merchandise exports;
9. SAFTA;
10. Carbon tax-world’s first;
11. ASEAN members;
12. National Rural Employment Guarantee Act,2005;
13. World Economic Forum meeting at Davos;
14. Life Insurance Corporation, National Insurance Company and United India Insurance Company;
15. Service Tax;
16. Nirmal Gram Puraskar;
CSE GS Prelims 2005
1. Census 2001-States with 2nd largest population;
2. Chamber of commerce-FICCI-President;
3. India’s Forex reserve and whole sale price index;
4. First airport owned by Public Limited Company;
5. ASEAN members;
6. PRGF of IMF and Singapore Regional Training Institute(STI)
7. Sensex and New York Stock Exchange;
8. Important companies-Business House;
9. Census 2001-Area and population of different state;
10. Census 2001-% of scheduled caste; decadal growth of population; State with least population; State with highest sex ratio;
11. Global Trust Bank and PNB amalgamation;
12. National Family Planning Programme and National Population Policy;
13. No. of Post Offices; Year of formation of BSNL and TRAI;
Major topics of GS Prelims questions related to Indian Economy (2005-2010):
1. Census 2001;
2. Basic statistics relating to Indian Economy;
3. Five Year Plans;
4. Government Policies;
5. Government Schemes, Projects and Missions;
6. Committees and their recommendations;
7. Public Sector Enterprises;
8. Stock Exchanges and Stock Indices—National and International;
9. Bank and insurance sector;
10. Famous private companies—business houses associated with them and their products/services;
11. International trading blocks—India as a member;
12. Environment Economics-- National and International;
13. Taxes and subsidies;
14. Miscellaneous;
Reading List:
1. NCERT textbooks (XI-XII) on Economics: Read the following sections:
From XI: Course II, Units I—IV;
From XII: Course II, Units IV—V;
2. Census 2001 Reports;
3. Economic Surveys, GOI,(2008-9 and 2009-10);
4. India 2010 and 2011;
5. One good guide book on CSE Prelims;
6. One/two good monthly magazine on competitive examination;
7. One/two national English dailies;
8. One economic/business daily, if possible.
How to prepare for CSE Prelims:
The civil services examination is basically a test to choose suitable administrators. It tests the candidate right from the stage when one starts the preparation. One common misconception about the prelims is that it is a test of facts and figures. This is not so. A candidate should have the right frame of mind and the will power to succeed in the exam. A proper action plan is needed for the preparation itself since he /she will be tested for some essential qualities like power of retention, clarity of concepts, ability to identify the correct alternatives with efficiency and accuracy. All this requires a quick decision making power. Since the preliminary exam in particular is a test of endurance the candidate needs to prepare himself on the physical as well as mental level. The main constraint is the time one gets to answer questions. On an average one gets around 40 seconds for each general Studies question and around 50 seconds for each optional question. Added to this time constraint is the fact that the exam is conducted in the month of May which is usually the hottest month all over the country. One sure way of dealing with this stress is to count numbers or to take a few deep breaths. Meditation and Yoga also help in dealing with stress to a great extent.
Now we come to the actual preparation for the prelims exam. Since it is a multiple choice question paper, it needs a different preparation and a proper strategy. The first thing a candidate needs to bear in mind is that the examination is designed to evaluate certain qualities like a sharp memory and basic retention power. There are ways to increase one's memory like preparing charts. One gets confused when faced with mind boggling facts and figures. Important facts and figures can be simplified and represented on charts and they can be arranged in the form of tables or graphs. Another thing to remember is to make short and brief notes on each topic so that the entire syllabus can be revised a day before the exam. It is better to use diagrams and link words which make it easier to understand difficult concepts. One more technique to help in retaining information is the use of abbreviations. Since the syllabus involves exhaustive information abbreviations help you to remember it better. It is a good method to remember dates, facts and figures in a picture format and to break up complex names and places into smaller and simpler words. The last and the most important technique is doing regular revision. This helps in retaining the maximum information. A separate time slot should be given to doing not only regular but multiple revisions like daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Many candidates make a mistake of overloading themselves with lots of information and end up remembering nothing. One should be able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant information. Since the preliminary exam is an elimination round the candidate should also learn to focus only on the information needed and filter out the rest. It helps to discuss with friends and teachers but the most reliable way is to past years question papers for the optional subject whereas for the general studies paper, one should keep abreast with current events and information related to them.
An important thing to remember is that for this exam it is just enough to remember information but to understand the concepts well instead of memorizing facts and figures. The questions asked in the General Studies paper are of 10+2 level whereas for the optional subject it is graduation level. Therefore emphasis has to be on conceptual clarity. Any concept has to be understood with its origin, merits and de-merits, then it needs to be analysed with other relevant topics and lastly it has to be correlated with the events that have taken place during the year.
The preliminary exam requires candidates who have the acumen and the ability to choose the right option of many given options. This needs a proper method of elimination. It is a good idea to go through previous years and model question papers and solve as many as possible. Taking a mock test of a certain number of G.S. questions and optional questions would be a good practice and help to pick out the most appropriate option.
Each prelims paper is for two hours but a lot of time is wasted in signing attendance sheets etc, therefore there is a lot of need for effective Time Management not only for the exam but in the preparation as well. It is not enough to know the right answer but it has to be marked correctly on the answer sheet. Speed and Accuracy are important, so solving model question papers on a regular basis would be a great help.
A good presence of mind is needed to eliminate the least appropriate options and arrive at the right one. Tick out the least correct answer first and go on to the next option. Even when faced with a question for which you do not have a ready answer, with basic common sense and a good presence of mind, it is possible to make your guess a smart and a correct one.
Throughout the preparation for the prelims exam, it is important to remember that any topic or concept should not be studied in isolation. It is better to understand and establish a correlation between related concepts from other subjects and current events and happenings.
Even with all this preparation, it is necessary to have a positive attitude and a great amount of will power to succeed to achieve your goal, that of getting through the civil services examination with flying colors!
Success Secrets:
Hard work:
Remember that there is no substitute to hard work. All successful candidates say the hard work is one of the first pre-requisites for the success. There is no short cut to success and hard work never goes unrewarded.
Planning and systematic study:
Proper planning right from the stage of selection of optional subjects and selection of text books is absolutely necessary. Though there is no one way of studying, there are ways to study more effectively and with less stress and more enjoyment. It is important to know how to make use of the sources available to you in the best possible way. It is wise to take a three pronged approach to preparation, reading to learn, making effective notes and able to write answers to various kinds of questions.
Time management:
Effective time management is another requirement. If we spend our time in a frenzy of activity, we can achieve very little because we are not concentrating on the right things. We keep hearing the word "Busy" a lot. There are two kinds of ‘busy’(ness): chaotic, disorganized busy and calm, effective busy. It goes without saying that being the latter helps to pack in more productivity in your work. Improving our "effectiveness quotient" calls for mastery of basic time management skills.
Self-confidence:
Your self-confidence can make the difference. Your self-confidence should be at an all time high - always. You should be in the company of people, who can increase your motivational levels high and can inspire you. Form a group of close friends, who are as determined as you are to make it to the Civil Services Examination.
Dedication:
Be totally dedicated and focused in your studies. You have to sacrifice something like movies, parties, and entertainments etc at this stage of your life to achieve bigger things.
Patience:
As the CSE preparation spans a minimum of one year, right from the Preliminary stage to the interview state, it requires a lot of patience to maintain your tempo. One should not lose patience and the tempo throughout the preparation period till success.
Tips for answering questions at the Prelims:
( I am indebted to Mr. Parvez Dewan, IAS for giving me some of these tips.)
Don’t waste time:
Start answering the questions from the minute you get them. The time allotted is very limited, so waste no time on reading the entire question paper first. First answer all the question you are sure you know the answers to. Skip all the difficult questions in the first round: in this round if you find yourself stuck in a question for more than 10 seconds, just skip it.
However, keep making a small mark on the question paper to indicate that you have skipped that question in the first round. This will enable you to save time in the next rounds. If you answer a question in the second round, cancel this mark, so that in third round you know which questions still remain unanswered. Three rounds should be sufficient, bur you could break the process into a fourth round too.
Negative marking:
There will be penalty for wrong answers marked by a candidate in the objective type question papers. There will be four alternatives for the answer to every question. For each question for which a wrong answer has been given by the candidate, one-third (0.33) of the marks assigned to that question will be deducted as penalty. If a candidate gives more than one answer, it will be treated as a wrong even if one of the given answers happens to be correct and there will be same penalty. But if a question is left blank, i.e. no answer is given by the candidate, there will be no penalty for that question. Hence you need be very cautious in the second and third rounds when you are attempting those questions you are fairly, but not absolutely, certain about or those questions that you know absolutely nothing about.
New Syllabus:
The Preliminary Examination shall now comprise of two compulsory Papers of 200 marks each and of two hours duration each. Detailed below is the new syllabus and pattern of the Preliminary Examination, which is brought to the notice of the prospective candidates intending to appear at the Civil Services Examination (CSE) in 2011 onwards:
Paper I - (200 marks) Duration: Two hours
• Current events of national and international importance
• History of India and Indian National Movement
• Indian and World Geography - Physical, Social, Economic geography of India and the World.
• Indian Polity and Governance – Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc.
• Economic and Social Development – Sustainable Development, Poverty, Inclusion, Demographics, Social Sector Initiatives, etc.
• General issues on Environmental ecology, Bio-diversity and Climate Change - that do not require subject specialization
• General Science.
Paper II- (200 marks) Duration: Two hours
• Comprehension
• Interpersonal skills including communication skills;
• Logical reasoning and analytical ability
• Decision making and problem solving
• General mental ability
• Basic numeracy (numbers and their relations, orders of magnitude etc.) (Class X level), Data interpretation (charts, graphs, tables, data sufficiency etc. -Class X level)
• English Language Comprehension skills (Class X level).
• Questions relating to English Language Comprehension skills of Class X level (last item in the Syllabus of Paper-II) will be tested through passages from English language only without providing Hindi translation thereof in the question paper.
• The questions will be of multiple choice, objective type.
Analysis of GS Prelims questions related to Indian Economy (2005-2010):
The questions were asked on the following topics:
CSE GS Prelims 2010
1. Special Safeguard Mechanism;
2. Commercial Banks’ credit creation;
3. Trademark and Geographical Indication—difference;
4. SEZ Act;
5. Deflation;
6. Non-banking Financial Companies;
7. FRBM Act;
8. Stock Market Terms-Bear;
9. FDI;
10. UNCTAD-Emerging Economies;
11. UN Organization;
12. Economic terms—Meltdown, Recession and Slow down;
13. BRIC countries;
14. Artificial currency;
15. Stiglitz Commission;
16. International Food Safety Standards of WTO;
17. National Food Security Mission;
18. Interest on savings account;
19. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;
20. Sustainable Development;
21. Measures to control fiscal deficit;
22. UN-Habitat’s Global Reports on Human Settlements, 2009;
23. Inclusive Growth;
24. Fiscal Stimulus;
25. Union Budget—Department that prepares;
26. CRR;
27. Wholesale and Consumer Price Index;
28. National Rehabilitation and Resettlement Policy 2007;
29. Five Year Plans;
30. Women Development Schemes—Swadhar and Swayam Siddha;
31. National Investment Fund;
32. Forward Markets Commission;
33. Financial Inclusion;
34. Limited Liability Partnership Firm;
35. Banking Ombudsman in India;
36. Commercial Banks—Function;
37. Tax structure in India;
38. GDP;
39. International Development Association;
CSE GS Prelims 2009
1. Infant Mortality Rate;
2. Private companies—Business house associated;
3. Financial organization—Service provided;
4. International auctioneers;
5. Funds from UNFCC;
6. Carbon credit;
7. World Economic Forum;
8. The Climate Change Accountability Bill—country
9. Important events of Indian economy;
10. Population density in south Asian countries;
11. Different taxes in India;
12. Stock Exchanges in India;
13. Energy Statistics;
14. Stock indices in different countries;
15. CACP—National Food Security Mission;
16. Deepak Parekh Committee;
17. Five Year Plans-Objectives;
CSE GS Prelims 2008
1. Green Revolution –Father of;
2. Stock Index—S & P 500;
3. Census 2001—State with minimum population;
4. Prisoner’s Dilemma;
5. Census 2001—State with highest % of rural population;
6. World Summit on Sustainable Development;
7. Clean Development Mechanism-carbon credits;
8. Census 2001-Million plus cities;
9. Name of PSUs;
10. UN Monetary and Financial Conference;
11. BRIT (GOI);
12. Important International Organisations—India as a member;
13. Census 2001-Persons above 65 years of age;
14. GDP per capita, Wheat and Rice production;
15. Rural Electrification Policy;
16. National Population Policy,2000;
17. Biodiesel Mission;
18. Indira Gandhi Old Age Pension Scheme;
19. Scheme to provide training and skills to women in trades.
CSE GS Prelims 2007
1. National Child Labour Project and Gurupadaswamy Committee;
2. Aluminum company—Location;
3. National Highways and States;
4. International companies-Products;
5. Changing sectoral contribution to Indian GDP;
6. Steel Industry in India;
7. National Housing Bank;
8. Food grains production in India;
CSE GS Prelims 2006
1. Famous companies-area of work;
2. Census 2001-Area,Literacy rate, Population;
3. BOP concept;
4. Bharat Nirman Plan and National Rural Employment Guarantee Act,2005;
5. Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act;
6. Indonext;
7. Non nationalized Bank;
8. Value of India’s export and India’s share in merchandise exports;
9. SAFTA;
10. Carbon tax-world’s first;
11. ASEAN members;
12. National Rural Employment Guarantee Act,2005;
13. World Economic Forum meeting at Davos;
14. Life Insurance Corporation, National Insurance Company and United India Insurance Company;
15. Service Tax;
16. Nirmal Gram Puraskar;
CSE GS Prelims 2005
1. Census 2001-States with 2nd largest population;
2. Chamber of commerce-FICCI-President;
3. India’s Forex reserve and whole sale price index;
4. First airport owned by Public Limited Company;
5. ASEAN members;
6. PRGF of IMF and Singapore Regional Training Institute(STI)
7. Sensex and New York Stock Exchange;
8. Important companies-Business House;
9. Census 2001-Area and population of different state;
10. Census 2001-% of scheduled caste; decadal growth of population; State with least population; State with highest sex ratio;
11. Global Trust Bank and PNB amalgamation;
12. National Family Planning Programme and National Population Policy;
13. No. of Post Offices; Year of formation of BSNL and TRAI;
Major topics of GS Prelims questions related to Indian Economy (2005-2010):
1. Census 2001;
2. Basic statistics relating to Indian Economy;
3. Five Year Plans;
4. Government Policies;
5. Government Schemes, Projects and Missions;
6. Committees and their recommendations;
7. Public Sector Enterprises;
8. Stock Exchanges and Stock Indices—National and International;
9. Bank and insurance sector;
10. Famous private companies—business houses associated with them and their products/services;
11. International trading blocks—India as a member;
12. Environment Economics-- National and International;
13. Taxes and subsidies;
14. Miscellaneous;
Reading List:
1. NCERT textbooks (XI-XII) on Economics: Read the following sections:
From XI: Course II, Units I—IV;
From XII: Course II, Units IV—V;
2. Census 2001 Reports;
3. Economic Surveys, GOI,(2008-9 and 2009-10);
4. India 2010 and 2011;
5. One good guide book on CSE Prelims;
6. One/two good monthly magazine on competitive examination;
7. One/two national English dailies;
8. One economic/business daily, if possible.
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